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The study blames climate change for 37% of global heat deaths
FILE – In this photo of Friday, June 26, 2015, girls attend a funeral for unsolicited people who died from extreme weather, in Karachi, Pakistan, after a devastating wave that struck southern Pakistan last weekend, with over 800 confirmed deaths according to a senior health official. A study published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, May 31, 2021, estimated that more than a third of global heat deaths could be directly attributable to man-made climate change. (Photo AP / Shakil Adil)
(AP) – More than a third of the world’s heat deaths each year are due to global warming, according to the latest study to calculate the human cost of climate change.
But scientists say that this is just a cluster of climates, the total number even more people die from the other extreme weather amplified by global warming e.g. storms, floods and droughts and the number of deaths from heat will increase exponentially with rising temperatures.
Dozens of researchers who looked at heat deaths in 732 cities around the globe from 1991 to 2018 estimated that 37% were caused by higher temperatures from human-induced heat, according to a study Monday in the journal Climate change in nature.
That amounts to about 9,700 people a year from those cities alone, but it’s far more worldwide, said the lead author of the study.
These are heat-related deaths that can actually be prevented. Something is something we cause directly, said Ana Vicedo-Cabrera, an epidemiologist at the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern in Switzerland.
The highest rates of heat-related deaths from climate change were in cities in South America. Vicedo-Cabrera noted Southern Europe and South Asia as other hotspots for heat-related deaths due to climate change.
Sao Paulo, Brazil, has more climate-related heat deaths, averaging 239 a year, researchers found.
About 35% of heat deaths in the United States can be blamed for climate change, the study found. That’s a total of more than 1,100 deaths a year in about 200 U.S. cities, led by 141 in New York. Honolulu had the highest share of heat deaths attributed to climate change, 82%.
Scientists used decades of mortality data in 732 cities to map curves detailing how the death rate varies in each city with temperature and how the heat-death curves vary from city to city. Some cities adapt to heating better than others due to air conditioning, cultural factors and environmental conditions, Vicedo-Cabrera said.
The researchers then took the observed temperatures and compared them with 10 computer models that simulate a world without climate change. The difference is the heat caused by humans. By implementing it scientifically accepted technique in individualized heat death curves for 732 cities, scientists calculated additional heat deaths from climate change.
People keep looking for evidence that climate change is already affecting our health. This attribution study directly answers that question using the epidemiological methods of science and the amount of data the authors have collected for analysis is impressive, said Dr. Jonathan Patz, director of the Global Institute of Health at the University of Wisconsin.
Patz, who was not part of the study, said he was one of the first to detail heat deaths in relation to climate change now, rather than in the future.
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