UK COVID-19 surge: what’s behind it?

The recent upward trend in UK cases may be explained by a combination of factors.

One factor may be related to the weakening of the immune system by the vaccine.

The United Kingdom was one of the first countries to deploy the vaccine and was already vaccinated. December 2020.. About 70% of the population had their first dose by July 1.

data According to reports from Israel, the immunity of the vaccine can decline after about 5-6 months, but that does not mean that the vaccine does not provide protection. They appear to provide less protection compared to when the first dose was administered.

Since then, the country has strengthened its booster program, 7 million Man.

However, despite the enthusiastic start of herd immunity, vaccination progress has been stalled. In particular, the first two weeks of September and October lost momentum. Relatively few People over the age of 12 who are vaccinated.

Inadequate vaccination rates for children may also contribute to the surge.

last week, Majority Of the cases of COVID-19, people under the age of 20 are infected. Vaccine intake remains low in children aged 12 to 15 years 20 percent..

The same is true in the United States 5 percent 12 to 15 years old who have been fully vaccinated so far.

In the UK, 12 to 15 years old are starting to receive 1 dose Of vaccines after September 20th. This lack of protection for children, whether vaccinated or innate immunized, increases the likelihood of a surge.

Dr. Eric Shioe PenhaNorthwell Health’s Global Health Director in New Hyde Park, New York, said the UK surge was likely due to the country not yet breaking the herd immunity barrier, resulting in occasional surges. Stated.

Gandhi said it was likely for two reasons.

“One thinks the UK has just begun vaccination of children aged 12 to 15 years and control of delta variants requires higher levels of immunity that require vaccination of younger people. “She said.

Second, she said, the low seroprevalence, that is, the percentage of people who had antibodies at the start of the vaccination campaign.

“Although the UK had high vaccination rates before it opened in mid-July, 9.8% Innate immunity before vaccination, “she said.

According to epidemiologists such as Professor Tim Spector of King’s College London, the surge is likely due to a “state of self-satisfaction” in the United Kingdom. July 19th.

Since that day, it has been called “Free Day” and the guidelines for social distance and other restrictions have been relaxed. It showed early mitigation of these measures compared to other countries such as: Germany and Portugal..It also happened when the more infectious Delta variants created it. 90 percent Of the case.

recently research Fully vaccinated people who develop COVID-19 have shown that they can still be infected with the coronavirus at home. In short, wearing a mask remains important to stop the epidemic.

The average number of 7-day cases in the United States has decreased slightly 68,000 1 day. According to the CDC, this is far less than the 161,000 records recorded in early September during the delta surge heyday.

“Even states like my own Tennessee, which is an under-vaccinated state, have a sustained decline in new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in most of the country,” he said. Dr. William SchaffnerProfessor of Preventive Medicine and Infectious Diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.

He attributed this decline to two developments:

“First, we are vaccination of more people every day. We are about to start vaccination of young children. In addition to the progress of the vaccination program, the virus continues to spread. And every time a new person is infected, whether asymptomatic, mildly ill, or severely ill, they have some protection after they have recovered. Therefore, both vaccines and viruses are immunizing our population. ”
– Dr. William Schaffner

Cioe-Peña agreed:

“”[The recent decrease is] Perhaps the natural decline and flow of COVID-19 — we’ve seen it burn down the population of the time. “

Cioe-Peña said the United States needs to be aware of the increasing number of cases in children in the future.

“There is evidence of increased transmissibility due to delta mutants in children. The surge in positive cases is also asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. [in the United Kindgom], Hospitalization and death [rates] It’s flat, but new infections are on the rise, “he said.

Schaffner explained further:

“”[D]Elta is so contagious that we are currently looking for sensitive individuals who are young adults, adolescents, and increasingly children. Therefore, it clearly has infectious abilities and has spread to groups that were virtually unaffected, such as 6-8 months ago. So it’s about finding people in our society who aren’t vaccinated, and there are even more young adults, teens, and even children. “
– Dr. William Schaffner

However, Cioe-Peña emphasized that high immunization rates prevent a surge in hospitalizations and deaths in the United Kingdom.

“Although the vulnerable population has a higher vaccination rate and the damage is much less, the virus is still passing through the population,” he said.

Cioe-Peña warned that another surge after a holiday break is likely to occur in the UK. This can be seen in the United States during Thanksgiving.

“Whenever I saw a lot of movement with kids and adults, I saw a surge in COVID-19,” he told Healthline.

Schaffner made the same prediction:

“As we have seen (in the United States), COVID-19 takes advantage of moving around, being introduced to new groups, and being given new opportunities for sprints, so I have children. Will be more worried rather than relaxed about the impact of being in a new environment after graduating from school. “

But for the United States, he was more optimistic.

“I think holidays could raise prices for all these reasons, but I don’t think there’s a big surge anymore. It’s more local and limited. But bumps for vacation trips and mixing It can happen, “Schaffner told Healthline.

According to Gandhi, the percentage of people over the age of 12 who have been vaccinated with at least one COVID-19 vaccine is now almost the same. 78 percent In the United States. With tens of millions of new COVID-19 cases recorded during the delta surge, the United States may be approaching herd immunity levels faster than the United Kingdom.

“Most experts say Between 80 and 90 percent A proportion of the population needs immunity to put Delta under control. [W]34 million new shots and maybe more 30 million For new infections, seroprevalence can now exceed up to 85 percent.Above 80 percent or 90 percent To achieve control over the Delta, we may now be approaching this level, and as a result, we may not see an increase in cases during the winter, “she explained.

The recent surge in the UK may have been caused by school-age children interacting and mixing with others during their mid-term vacations.

The UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) has since Recommended Children undergo an immunochromatography (rapid antigen) test before returning to school after an intermediate break.

Wearing masks and lack of containment measures also contribute to the spread of the coronavirus.

The weakening of immunity by vaccines and the slow development of booster immunity, coupled with low vaccination rates in children, may have contributed to the recent surge.

Experts say a recovery from COVID-19 infection or a surge after the interim period is expected, and the United States may experience a similar situation before and after Thanksgiving.

However, as Gandhi points out, future spikes mainly depend on how much immunity is produced by vaccination and innate immunity from exposure to SARS-CoV-2.