How the CDC’s COVID Warning System Fails in Tampa Bay and Florida

Residents of Tampa Bay will need to mask indoors again according to federal COVID-19 guidelines.

But public health experts say guidance should have come sooner.

Hillsboro, Pasco, and Pinellas counties are at “high” risk of COVID-19, according to Tampa Bay Times analysis. It is based on the latest Community Risk Guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

When cases and hospitalizations reach a certain threshold in the county (more than 200 infections and 10 hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants), federal health officials say that everyone, regardless of health status, is public. It is recommended to wear a mask in indoor spaces.

However CDC’s own website As of 3 pm on Tuesday, Tampa Bay and South Florida counties are still labeled as COVID-19 “medium” risk. Authorities were aware as early as May 19th that some counties were incorrectly labeled, but the error has not been fixed.

So in Florida, the CDC couldn’t sound its own COVID-19 alert system.

In an email to the Times, CDC spokesperson Jasmine Reed said the agency’s “medium” risk classification was “correct for the three counties of Hillsboro, Pinellas and Pasco.” However, this email cites CDC data showing zero infections detected in these counties between May 13th and 19th.

This is not the correct 7-day case rate per 100,000 inhabitants. According to the report, there are actually 246.4 infections in Pineras, 224.9 infections in Pasco, and 224.4 infections in Hillsboro. state When Federal data Released May 20 — well above the 200 case rate threshold that poses a “high” risk.

The CDC relies on weekly updates to determine risk levels and states that Florida updates are needed when new data are counted on Thursday.

According to University of South Florida virologist Michael Teng, public health tools are useless if they can be undone with a single data problem. It is even more confusing that most of the state community COVID-19 levels are considered “low” if the number of cases is clearly increasing.

“The CDC often came up with different messages,” says Teng. “And this is a case study of how to not communicate protocol measures.”

Delaying updating Tampa Bay’s status to “high” risk only exacerbates what experts say is a major issue with the new guidelines released in February.

Jason Salemi, an epidemiologist at the University of South Florida, said:

Delayed indicator

Cases of COVID-19 have increased in Florida for the ninth straight week. The average number of infections per day last week increased by 53%. Florida health officials have recorded more than 8,600 new infections per day. The state’s positive rate has reached 16.9%.

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Examine all options

The spread of the infection is “quite unavoidable because the community is not taking action to control the virus,” Salemi said. State leaders have banned forced masking and question the effectiveness of masks and vaccines.

Salemi believes that if the Florida people were warned earlier, they could have taken steps to delay the spread of the virus. However, the CDC recommends that all people wear masks indoors only when cases and hospitalization reach certain thresholds.

He said it was a problem because hospitalization is an indicator of delay. It can take days or weeks for an infected person to become ill and need to be hospitalized. This means that the level of infection was already high before the hospitalization was revealed.

“Everyone should now be wearing the right masks indoors, but we’re waiting for the community to grow too large to trigger hospitalizations (Universal),” said Salemi. Masking recommended) “.

There is no perfect indicator

Dependence on the number of inpatients admitted with COVID-19 has statistical advantages. Unlike case data, hospitalization is a reliable and consistent measure of a pandemic.

When the pandemic reached 27 months, other indicators faded. Public test sites are declining across the state. The number of tests reported by Florida clinics, hospitals, and laboratories is the lowest since the start of the pandemic. Home testing is popular, but it has not been reported to health authorities and cannot be used to track COVID-19 infections in the community.

Wastewater tracking, a promising new technique for measuring the spread of viruses, does not help most Florida citizens. The Ministry of Health received more than $ 1.2 million in federal funding last summer to build a state-wide tracking system, but no such system exists. A local utility patchwork tests residents’ wastewater at COVID-19 levels, but the national initiative shut down on April 15 while a new federal contractor took over the program.

On the other hand, hospitalizations for COVID-19 are reported daily by hospitals nationwide. This is a good choice for tracking where the healthcare infrastructure is straining, Teng said. However, hospitalizations increase long after COVID-19 has penetrated the community, providing a flawed indicator for deciding when to recommend emergency safety measures such as masking.

“It’s like reporting a few hours after a car accident,” Ten said. “If people have already gone to the hospital, it’s too late to prevent it.”

There is no perfect indicator for tracking a pandemic, but useful precautions need to be positive, Teng said. The CDC can look for pockets with low vaccination levels or weakened immunity.

When the virus begins to spread again, it is these areas that need to be masked first.

“Too individualistic”

Although slower than infectious diseases, hospitalizations have begun to increase in recent weeks. Approximately 1,700 COVID-19 patients were identified at the Florida hospital at the end of last week, an increase of 21% over the previous week.

Hospitalization is still low compared to the previous period of the pandemic. This is a good sign that vaccinations and immunity from previous infections still prevent serious illnesses for most people, Salemi said.

However, for many immunocompromised or elderly Floridans, infection can still be life-threatening. According to CDC data, unvaccinated adults are also at risk and are five times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than vaccinated and boosted adults.

“Florida citizens are free to make decisions about risk,” state health spokesman Jeremy Redfern said in an email to the Times.

When the county reaches the “medium” community level of COVID-19, federal guidelines only recommend that those high-risk individuals wear masks indoors. Salemi is worried that the guidelines place too much safety burden on vulnerable people.

“It’s too individualistic,” Salemi said. “I rely too much on people to protect myself.”

The general public was not required to wear masks indoors until cases and hospitalizations reached critical levels, at which point the virus took days or weeks to spread throughout the community.

“And the virus has repeatedly shown that it is very good at finding those vulnerable individuals when the spread makes this noticeable.”

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How to take the test

Tampa Bay: Times can help you find Free public COVID-19 test site In the bay area.

Florida: To the Ministry of Health Website List test sites in the state. Some information may be out of date.

America: To the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare Website It can help you find a test site.

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How to get vaccinated

COVID-19 vaccines over 5 years old and booster shots of eligible recipients are administered in clinics, clinics, pharmacies, grocery stores, and public vaccination sites. In many cases, you can book your booking online. Here’s how to find a site near you.

Find a site: visit Vaccine.gov Search for vaccination sites by zip code.

Other help: Call the National COVID-19 VaccinationAssistanceHotline.

phone: 800-232-0233. Help is available in English, Spanish, and other languages.

TTY: 888-720-7489

Disability information and access lines: Call 888-677-1199 or send an email to [email protected].

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Booster Shot: Are you confused about which COVID booster to get? This guide is useful..

Booster Question: Are there any side effects? Why do you need it? Here is the answer to your question..

Senior protection: Here’s how older people can do it: Ensuring safety from viruses..

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