New vaccine warning as virus cases surge

A coronavirus vaccine could still be many months away and there needs to be preparations for an Australia that does not have a vaccine, the nation’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer says.

Dr Nick Coatsworth said while an “immense amount of human capital” was being poured into developing a COVID-19 treatment, it could still be some way off despite one potential vaccine from the University of Queensland recently entering human trials.

“I think there needs to be some degree of preparation … for an Australia that doesn’t have a vaccine. We hope to come as soon as possible but it may not come for many months,” Dr Coatsworth said.

“In that sort of situation, it is the case that movement restriction and decreasing mixing of individuals is one of the main weapons that we have against COVID-19.”

Dr Coatsworth said he did not believe that Australia would experience “several months or years where we have lockdown after lockdown.”

I don’t think that is necessarily going to be the case at all. The focus is to get this particularly significant outbreak under control in Victoria and then go back to what we do best, which is contacting, tracing and eliminating small outbreaks.”

Victoria tody recorded 273 cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours.

He also said it was “critically important” that anyone who visited the Crossroads Hotel southwest Sydney suburb of Casula between July 3 and July self-isolated until 14 days after their visit, and were tested for COVID-19.

“Furthermore, if you were at that particular pub between the July 3 and July 10, you are strongly encouraged to get tested, regardless of your symptoms. This is because that venue is currently the hub of the public health investigation into the small cluster in southwest Sydney emanating from the Crossroads Hotel,” he said.

Dr Coatsworth said only one COVID-19 case in Victoria had been identified through the Federal Government’s coronavirus tracing app, COVIDSafe, who was then found to not be a significant contact.

He conceded that while 6.5 million people had downloaded the app that did not mean they were actively using it.

But it was still an important weapon in Australia’s battle against the coronavirus, Dr Coatsworth said.

“I would suggest to you that if you’re a supporter of mask use you must also be … a supporter of downloading and activating the app,” he said.

CASES IN VICTORIA SURGE

Victoria has confirmed 273 cases of coronavirus in the last 24 hours, bringing the state’s number of active cases to 1484, and its total number of cases to 3799.

A man in his 70s has died in hospital, bringing the state’s death toll to 24.

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews described it as “a dangerous time”.

Mr Andrews said prep to Year 10 students in metro Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire will return to remote and flexible learning from July 20.

“I want to thank every single Victorian for taking these rules seriously, for taking the circumstances that we face seriously,” he said.

“There is simply no alternative but to go to this footing,” he said.

“We can’t have the best part of 700,000 students as well as parents moving to and from school, moving around the community, as if there wasn’t a stay-at-home order, as if there wasn’t a lockdown, that will put at direct risk us achieving our aim and that, of course, is to drive the numbers down at the end of the six-week period and get to a position where we will have control and where we can begin a very cautious program of easing.”

It comes as eight staff members at The Alfred Hospital in Melbourne tested positive for coronavirus.

A statement released by the hospital this morning confirmed five of the cases are not linked and are believed to have contracted the disease through community transmission.

The other three were identified through contract tracing.

Alfred Health said that currently no patients have contracted COVID-19 within the hospital.

ADELAIDE VACCINE TO TARGET HOT SPOTS

Residents living in coronavirus hot spots in Melbourne may be targeted for human trials of an Australian vaccine in a plan being drawn up by an Adelaide scientist.

A COVID-19 vaccine developed by Flinders University professor Nikolai Petrovsky is the first Australian candidate to enter phase 1 human trials, The Australian reports.

Professor Petrovsky wants to conduct the next phase of human trials in Victorian outbreak hot spots.

“What we’re proposing is that if a vaccine is available that has passed initial safety and immunogenicity preliminary testing criteria in humans, that vaccine could be used in the context of a localised outbreak to see whether that breaks the cycle of virus transmission and actually brings the outbreak to a stop,” Professor Petrovsky, the founder of the South Australian biotech Vaxine, said.

“As soon as the phase 1 safety data is available there is no reason that our vaccine could not be used in an setting by Victoria in just such a manner.”

TRUMP WEARS FACE MASK FOR FIRST TIME

US President Donald Trump has donned a face mask in public for the first time as coronavirus cases continue to surge across the US.

In a dramatic shift from his past refusal to wear a face covering, Mr Trump wore a face mask during a visit to the Walter Reed Army Medical Centre, where he met with recuperating military personnel.

Mr Trump has previously said the wearing of masks causes people to touch their face too much and so is not helpful.

The US President told Fox News on Thursday that he would wear a face mask during the trip to the hospital in Bethseda, Maryland

BOLLYWOOD LEGEND AND SON TEST POSITIVE

It comes as Bollywood superstar Amitabh Bachchan revealed he tested positive for COVID-19 and was admitted to hospital on Saturday (local time) in his hometown of Mumbai, he said on Twitter, calling for those close to him to get tested.

“I have tested COVID positive … shifted to Hospital,” the 77-year-old wrote, saying his family and staff had already been tested and were awaiting their results.

“All that have been in proximity to me in the last 10 days are requested to please get themselves tested!” he added.

The actor’s son, Abhishek, later tweeted he had also tested positive.

AMERICA’S VIRUS CRISIS WORSENS

Florida has set a one-week record for the number of COVID-19-related deaths in the state. America remains in crisis as the country continues to struggle to contain the virus.

Donald Trump postponed a planned rally in New Hampshire citing concerns around Tropical Storm Fay, but reports suggested the US President’s team was wary of any virus spread after cases surged in Oklahoma following a Trump rally there in recent weeks.

In Florida, deaths continued to rise, bringing the total for the week to 496 or an average of nearly 71 per day, a record for the state.

Rapid case increases and hospitalisations have made Arizona one of the worst hot spots in the US for coronavirus.

In Arizona, intensive care beds were at 90 per cent capacity as the number of coronavirus cases in the state surged by 150 per cent.

The disease is widespread in the state, and health officials caution people to stay home unless necessary to leave – and to wear masks in public, the Arizona Republic newspaper reported on Saturday (local time).

On Friday (local time), the US recorded 63,643 new coronavirus cases, according to a tracker maintained by Johns Hopkins University.

And 774 people died of COVID-19 in the country in the past 24 hours, the Baltimore-based university said.

The worst-hit country in the world by the pandemic, the US has recorded a total of 133,969 deaths out of 3.18 million cases.

Thursday saw a record surge in cases, with 65,551 new infections. Experts fear there will soon be a spike in deaths.

In recent days, Texas and Florida reported record numbers of virus deaths.

“As a country, when you compare us to other countries, I don’t think you can say we’re doing great,” top infectious disease official Dr Anthony Fauci said.

Mr Trump hit out at the respected scientist, telling Fox News: “Dr Fauci is a nice man, but he’s made a lot of mistakes.”

COVID DRUG NOT A ‘SILVER BULLET’

Australia’s deputy chief medical officer, Dr Nick Coatsworth, has said a new treatment option that has been approved to be used to treat COVID-19 was not a “silver bullet”.

Dr Coastworth said the Therapeutic Goods Administration granted provisional approval for the antiviral drug Remdesivir to be used among adults and adolescent patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms in hospital.

“It stops the virus from multiplying further in the body,” he said.

‘The important thing to note is none [of the drugs available] are a silver bullet. None of the international trials that have been conducted have shown marked results but they have shown some results that indicate remdesivir might be effective in patients with moderate to severe disease.”

He also said the drug has been linked to a reduced hospital stay due to reduction of severe adverse events.

“What we don’t know yet is whether it has a conclusive effect on mortality,” he said, as he emphasised the work of intensive care doctors and nurses had been the nation’s best defence so far.

“Remdesivir is very certainly good news but the best thing we have is skilled doctors and nurses.”

He said the current stockpile of Remdesivir in Australia is enough for coming weeks.

It comes after the US bought up most global supply of the drug in June.

Dr Coatsworth also said he was hopeful of a vaccine being developed.

MASKS ARE EFFECTIVE WITH HIGH TRANSMISSION

Dr Coatsworth said that masks are really only significantly effective when there are large amounts of community transmission.

“Masks are part of a suite of protective measures,” Coatsworth said.

“While it’s challenging what’s happening in Victoria at the moment … all it took in New Zealand was one or two cases to cause a significant amount of concern in the community. We have to learn to live with COVID-19.”

This week Victorians were advised to wear masks in places where social distancing is not possible.

Bit masks are not mandatory.

When asked if the contact tracing system would become overwhelmed at any point, he said it was part of Australia’s national response to COVID-19.

“This is a national response to COVID-19 so contact tracers are being mobilised nationally to assist colleagues in Victoria who have been working night and day on this … there’s some fantastic work being done in Victoria,” he added.

CHINESE VIROLOGIST SLAMS BEIJING COVID-19 ‘COVER-UP’

A leading Chinese doctor, who specialises in virology and immunology, has fled Hong Kong for the United States to deliver a “message of the truth of COVID”, amid fears she will be ‘disappeared’.

Li-Meng Yan, who was based at the Hong Kong School of Public Health before fleeing overseas on April 28, believes China knew about the novel coronavirus well before its communist leadership has claimed it did.

She has also claimed her supervisors ignored research that could have saved countless lives.

Yan told Fox News, she feared she “will be disappeared and killed” because of her revelations but felt an obligation to tell the truth.

“The reason I came to the US is because I deliver the message of the truth of COVID,” she said.

Speaking to the news outlet from an undisclosed location, Yan said the coronavirus cover-up goes to the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party and reveals the lengths President Xi Jinping has gone to in an attempt to control the narrative of COVID-19.

“The China government refused to let overseas experts, including ones in Hong Kong, do research in China,” Yan said.

“So I turned to my friends to get more information.”

Yan said she spoke to a friend at the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in China on December 31, who said human-to-human transmission of the virus was possible, well before China or the WHO said it was.

On January 9, the WHO released a statement that leaned on information from Chinese authorities that said: “the virus in question can cause severe illness in some patients and does not transmit readily between people”.

That information, of course, has since been flipped 180 degrees.

Yan said shortly after that, her fellow medical professionals began to avoid talk about the virus, amid claims they had been warned not to speak about what was going on.

“We can’t talk about it, but we need to wear masks,'” Yan said she was told by fellow doctors.

“There are many, many patients who don’t get treatment on time and diagnosis on time,” Yan said.

“Hospital doctors are scared, but they cannot talk. CDC staff are scared.”

On January 16, when Yan again reported her findings on the virus to her supervisor she was allegedly told: “to keep silent and be careful”.

“He warned me before, ‘Don’t touch the red line [the government]. We will get in trouble and we’ll be disappeared.”

The claims back up the thoughts of many in the global scientific and political communities and pose even more questions about China’s and the World Health Organisation’s handling of the pandemic.

SHOCKING POSSIBILITIES FOR VICTORIA

Doomsday modelling forecasts that Victoria will record up to 1,349 new coronavirus cases every day by the end of July unless the state can bring its new outbreak under control, according to a new study.

Exclusive modelling by the University of NSW for The Australian shows there will be at least 500 new cases every day by the end of next week, with infections doubling every five days.

Mathematical biologist Deborah Cromer of the University of NSW’s Kirby ­Institute forecasts the number of new cases each day could hit 1000 by July 21, and a frightening 1,349 every day by the end of the month if the reinstated lockdown can’t halt the spread.

While she is optimistic that case numbers will peak next week, she said COVID-19 could “take off” just like it’s done around the world.

“This is community transmission, a really serious problem,” Dr Cromer said. “The lockdown is important. If nothing is done, then it will continue to take off, as we have seen elsewhere in the world.

“The lockdown that is happening across Melbourne should work. In the past it did work. You would hope to see some impact next week in the slowing down of the numbers, somewhere between the 13th (of July) and the 18th.”

Nobel laureate Peter Doherty, namesake and patron of the University of Melbourne’s Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, said the rate of spread in Victoria was consistent with a basic reproductive rate of 2.5 for the virus, The Australian reported.

This meant each infected person could be expected to transmit the disease to 2.5 others.

“I have been asking this question over and over of the epidemiologists, whether they are seeing anything above that,” he said.

“And it does seem to be about 2.5, which makes it about as infectious as a bad flu, but infinitely less infectious than measles.”

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews admitted the new outbreak would not be easy to control.

“We knew it would need to get worse before it got better, and that unless we took those steps we ­simply wouldn’t be able to bring a sense of control to this,” Mr Andrews said.

“We would not be able to see a stabilisation and then a driving down of those numbers. At the same time, no one should underestimate how significant, how big a challenge it is that we all face. It is very significant, and that is why each of us (has) to play a part.”

CHANGES TO HOTEL QUARANTINE, FLIGHTS CUT

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said there will be a national review of hotel quarantine procedures and national cabinet agreed to a reduction in inbound arrivals into Australia.

He said inbound flights were being cut by half, equating to a reduction of more than 4000 people.

The change will come into place on Monday.

Returning travellers will also need to pay for the cost of the 14-days mandatory hotel quarantine.

“There is also a view across the National Cabinet that they are all effectively moving to a charging system for the hotel quarantine that is in place for those returning businesses,” he said.

“Some states already have it, other states are moving towards that, and I will leave that to them to make their announcements at the appropriate time and where possible, we will seek to have some sort of national uniformity across those pricings and we are sharing those information is with the states and territories.

“The decision that we took to reduce the number of returned travellers to Australia at this time was to ensure that we could put our focus on the resources needed to do the testing and tracing and not have to have resources diverted to other tasks.

“We will review that as the weeks go by but for now, that is where we have reduced it. It is a reduction of over 4,000 people coming each week and that is spread across those ports of entry and that will take affect from Monday.”

Mr Morrison said there was not an exact figure on the number of international arrivals being allowed into Australia and it would depend on whether there were enough hotels to accommodate them for the quarantine period.

Chief Medical Officer Prof Paul Kelly also said those going outside in Melbourne today should be wearing a mask.

“That is the advice if you cannot guarantee physical distancing. In these circumstances, some of you might want to consider that,” he said.

Mr Morrison said the rising number of cases in Victoria remains “very concerning”.

“The premier will stand-up through the day and update the situation there, but it is concerning,” he said.

“They have called for help, they are getting help, but the key here is that all states and territories again reaffirmed their support for Victoria in providing whatever resources they needed to deal with the outbreak in Victoria.”

Originally published as Melbourne hospital hit with second outbreak as cases surge