More than 31 million people exposed to Covid at K’taka: Serum Research Prediction-Indian News

According to a serum prevalence survey conducted by an independent group of researchers, it is estimated that nearly 31.5 million people in Karnataka are infected with the Sars-COV-2 virus, and the actual number of infections in the state is 8. 100 times more than 327,000 cases confirmed by the end of the month.

This survey uses the survey design that has been used to collect detailed household econometrics, making it one of the most comprehensive such exercises to date. Serum prevalence studies involving blood draws to determine the presence of antibodies usually need to be carefully examined with sampling to obtain a true image of the prevalence in a particular area.

“Adjusted serum prevalence across Karnataka is 46.7% (95% CI: 43.3-50.0), 44.1% (95% CI: 40.0-48.2) in rural areas, and 53.8% (95% CI: 95% CI:) in urban areas. 48.4-59.2). The relatively high prevalence in rural areas is consistent with higher levels of mobility measured in rural areas, probably due to agricultural activity, “as a preprint of medRxiv. In a published paper, researchers at the IDFC Institute said.

From mid-June to August 2020, researchers collected samples from nearly 3,000 households in 20 districts of the state and wiped respondents with a cotton swab in an RT-PCR test to identify active infections. “The proportion of people who test positive for RT-PCR ranges from 1.5 to 7.7% in rural areas and 4.0 to 5.5% in urban areas, suggesting a rapidly expanding epidemic,” they said. Added.

“Our findings show that the Covid-19 epidemic in India had almost as serious an impact on rural areas as it did in urban areas, despite early attention to the epidemic in urban areas. We provide evidence, “added the researchers, identifying two key factors. Immediately after the blockade imposed in March, large-scale movements of daily workers who lost their income sources in urban areas and returned to rural areas of the country continued …

“The second factor was the severe blockades in urban areas, but less restrictions on movement in rural areas because agricultural activity was considered an essential sector,” they say.

The design of the study is a “significant challenge,” said Manoj Mohanan, a professor at Duke University and a fellow at the IDFC Institute. He added that the study has partnered with CMIE, which runs the world’s largest household survey panel known as the Consumer Pyramid Household Survey of just under 175,000 households in India. Of these, 9717 is in Karnataka.

“We work with a randomly selected subset of one-quarter of these households, then follow up with each household (and its members) to collect cotton swabs and blood samples. This strategy has two major advantages: one is a positive test to reflect the composition of the household, as there is data from the previous round of CPHS surveys on who is in these households. The proportions can be adjusted. We use a very well-defined sampling frame and we estimate the findings from this CPHS population and know exactly how to reach the number across the state, “he said. Added.

Researchers add that their findings have some policy implications. “As of August 2020, nearly half of the state’s population is infected with Covid, so strict control policies across the general population impose significant costs on those who are already infected,” they said. Stated in the paper.

To address this, Mohanan said in another email conversation with HT that the state “focused on areas of widespread infection rather than general state-wide control measures, where Consider a more targeted strategy to limit the chances of getting infected. ”

Researchers also use their sampling strategy to reach out to households to market for pooled tests.

Mohanan added that the team is working on future research focused on understanding how antibodies and immunity progress over time. “This is important to understand the risk of reinfection and to inform us of vaccination policies that will be an important issue in the coming months,” he said.