Coronavirus misery is expected to continue for another two years

They recommended that the United States be prepared for the worst scenarios, including the second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. They predicted that even in the best scenarios, people would die of the virus.

“This doesn’t stop until 60-70% of people are infected,” Mike Osterholm, who heads the Center for Infectious Diseases Research Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told CNN.

Osterholm has been writing about pandemic risks for 20 years and has advised several presidents. He wrote a report with Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health. MarcLipsitch is also a pandemic expert. Dr. Christine Moore, a former Epidemiology Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is currently the Director of Medicine at CIDRAP. And historian John Barry wrote the 2004 book The Great Flu about the 1918 flu pandemic.

Waiting for herd immunity

Since Covid-19 is new, no one has immunity, they said. “As the herd’s immunity develops progressively in the human population, the length of a pandemic will probably be 18 to 24 months,” they wrote.

Their projections are models presented by groups such as the Institute for Health Index Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and reports that predict the deaths of millions in the United States and the United Kingdom.

The CIDRAP-led team summarized their predictions using their reports, historical data on past pandemics, and public reports on Covid-19’s medical details.

“I’ve long said that when trying to understand how infectious diseases evolve, we should rely not only on model, but on history,” Lipsic told CNN. Pandemic infections, for example, are not as prone to death in the summer as seasonal flu, he said.

They said Covid-19 is the closest match to a pandemic strain of flu.

“COVID-19 has a longer incubation period, is asymptomatic, and has a higher R0, so it seems more likely to spread than influenza,” they write in a report. R0 is the average number of others infected with each patient.

“A higher R0 means more people need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic ends,” they add. “Based on the latest influenza outbreak, this outbreak will probably last for 18 to 24 months.”

Prepare for the worst

They said government officials should stop telling people that a pandemic may end and instead make citizens prepare for the long term.

They said three scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1: The first wave of Covid-19 in the spring of 2020, followed by a series of repeating small waves over the summer, followed by a gradual decline in 2021 over a period of one to two years

Scenario 2: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a large wave in autumn or winter, followed by one or more small waves in 2021. “In this pattern, mitigation measures need to be reset in the fall in order to promote proliferation. Preventing infections and overwhelming the healthcare system.” “This pattern is similar to that seen in the 1918-19 pandemic.”

Scenario 3: A “slow burn” of an ongoing infection. “In this third scenario, cases and deaths continue to occur, but resetting mitigation would probably not be necessary.”

The states and territories recommended that the worst scenario, Scenario 2, should be planned.

“Government officials need to develop specific plans to address peaks at the onset, including triggers to resume mitigation,” they advised.

Both Lipsitch and Osterholm said they were surprised at the decision many states have made to lift the restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.

“I think it’s an experiment. It’s a particularly deadly experiment, where you do it without careful control to try to figure out when you try to slow things down again,” Lipsic said. Said.

In addition, some states choose to deregulate when there are more new infections than when they decide to impose restrictions.

“It’s difficult to understand even the rationale,” Lipsic said.

Vaccines may help, the report said, but not quickly. “The course of a pandemic can also be affected by the vaccine. However, the vaccine will be available at least sometime in 2021,” they wrote.

“And we don’t know what kind of challenges can delay the timeline during vaccine development.”

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