Health

Coronavirus pandemic could last two years, according to a new report

With coronavirus deregulation around the world, a new report warns that a pandemic that has already killed more than 230,000 people will not be contained for two years. A modeling study by the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota also states that about 70% of people need immunity to stop the virus.

In this study, experts look at data on eight major influenza pandemics dating to the 1700s and a new coronavirus to help predict how COVID-19 will spread over the next months and years. It was. Of the eight outbreaks of influenza in the past, seven had the second largest peak, about six months after the first outbreak, scientists say. In addition, some people said that the wave of cases was small for two years after the first outbreak.

A key element in the current prediction of pandemics revolves around herd immunity. This refers to the community’s overall resistance to the spread of infectious diseases that occur when a high proportion of people become immune-infected, either by vaccination or by previous exposure.

“The duration of the pandemic will probably be 18 to 24 months, as the herd’s immunity develops progressively in the human population,” the report says. “Given the contagious nature of SARS-CoV-2, it is the virus that causes COVID-19.” To stop a pandemic, 60% to 70% of the population needs immunity to reach its limit. May do. “

It takes time to reach that point, as blood test data show that only a small percentage of the entire population has been infected so far, and the chances of a vaccine are months, if not more than a year. It is not yet clear if the person who recovers from the infection is immune and how long such protection lasts.

The report shows some possible scenarios, including a scenario where a large wave of disease can occur in the fall or winter of 2020, followed by a small wave of 2021. Researchers say the model-a pandemic of the flu similar to the pattern seen in the devastating Spanish of 1918— “Mitigation measures in the fall to limit the spread of infection and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system It will need to be reset. ”

The other two scenarios in the report include recurrent peaks and valleys, or a small wave of illness over the next two years.

In any case, researchers say people need to be prepared for “regional hot spots, with at least 18-24 months of significant COVID-19 activity,” in different regions. It was.

They “synchronize with the seasonal pattern of decreasing severity over time,” as the virus continues to spread to human populations and outbreaks are finally beginning to wane, they say.

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