what a Trump victory would mean for the rest of the world

According to the United Nations, 2024 is the largest election year in human history, with half the world's population, some 3.7 billion people across 72 countries, able to vote. Still, some elections are more important than others, which is why the whole world follows the US elections closely.

The United States is the world's largest economy and greatest military power. But it is also the linchpin of many international strategic alliances, of the economic and financial system and of many global liberal institutions.

These elections represent a pivotal moment in U.S. history that could have far-reaching implications for how the country is governed and the future of the postwar order that Washington helped build.

Unlike any election since 1945, the fundamentals of America's relationship with the rest of the world are controversial. The choice is between Donald Trump's Republican Party, which potentially offers a complete break from the United States' role in the international community, or Kamala Harris' more international agenda under Democratic leadership. Under Harris, the United States will likely continue to play an important role in NATO, for example.

Tariffs on China

The most visible attack on U.S. foreign policy tradition is Trump's plan to impose a universal 20 percent tariff on all foreign imports. Tariffs on China could be much higher with Trump's threats of 60-200%. In addition to being inflationary and damaging to the U.S. economy, such measures risk retaliation, trade wars, and disruption to the global economy. By limiting access to the world's largest national market, they would also hamper global efforts to transition to a carbon-free economy.

If re-elected, Donald Trump will move away from Joe Biden's climate change policies.

These questions, however, do not worry Trump, who plans to reiterate his withdrawal from Washington from the Paris agreement on climate change, to repeal the environmental protection measures put in place by Joe Biden and to authorize the unrestricted exploitation of American oil and gas deposits through deregulated hydraulic fracturing. Trump's plans would add tons of additional carbon to the atmosphere if carried out and are likely to significantly harm global work on climate change.

Read more: How Harris and Trump's economic commitments compare

The United States' commitment to defending its friends and allies against hostile states is also on the table in the 2024 elections. As a member of NATO, the United States is required to come to the aid of other members by under Article 5, if another country attacks them, and they also have similar treaties with Japan and South Korea. The Biden administration has led NATO in supporting Ukraine with military and financial aid to prevent its total subjugation to Russian occupation.

In contrast, Trump indicated he would end this support and pressure kyiv to accept peace on Moscow's terms. Rather than seeing a network of alliances as the basis of strength and influence, Trump sees them as a source of risk and a burden.

Defend friends

Many former officials, like former national security adviser John Bolton, suspect that Trump would seek to leave NATO in a second term or weaken its effectiveness through lukewarm support. In Asia, Trump recently said Taiwan should pay us for its defense. You know, it's no different than an insurance company suggesting a weakening of the American commitment to the island.

For many observers, these elections are also important because the United States' ability to conduct free, fair, and uncontested elections and a peaceful transfer of power is in question. Since first participating in the Republican Party primary process in 2016, Trump has never accepted the results of an election he lost.

What's more remarkable is that he convinced a majority of Republican voters to side with him by claiming the 2020 election was stolen, while only a third thought the election was legitimate. When confidence in the electoral process is so shaken, it is difficult to imagine how the United States could come together to be governed after the election.

For the Trump camp, however, there is a ready answer to this question. If elected, Project 2025, a policy document prepared by a right-wing think tank, suggests his administration would replace the top level of Washington's bureaucracy with 50,000 officials who pledge their loyalty to him on the Constitution. It also suggests that a Trump administration would disband myriad federal agencies such as the Justice, Energy and Education departments as well as the FBI and the Federal Reserve and use its newly asserted executive power to impose its political program.

Such measures are intended to allow Trump to introduce a series of policies that many view as authoritarian, such as deporting millions of illegal aliens, using the National Guard and military, if necessary.

The American democratic experiment has fascinated and inspired the world since its beginnings in 1776. But never before has it seemed so threatened. The United States is deeply divided on many fundamental issues, such as taxation, immigration, abortion, trade, energy and environmental policy, as well as its role in the world.

For the first time, these divisions seem more important to many voters than respect for their democratic institutions and traditions. More fundamentally, many American citizens seem incapable of accepting the outcome of the democratic process and the legitimacy of the winner that results from it. Who wins the election and how the United States will be governed as a result matters more than ever to more people.

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