Oregon again surpasses 1,000 coronavirus cases, forecasting about 1,200 cases per day by mid-August

First formula COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) Forecast using data since Governor Kate Brown lifted pandemic restrictions almost a month ago Daily coronavirus cases Within a few weeks, it could approach the peak of Oregon last December.

An average of 1.58 people infected with COVID-19 were infected during the week leading up to July 14, according to an analysis by the Oregon Department of Health released on Friday. If that rate is maintained, Oregon will have 1,170 new cases per day in the two weeks leading up to August 17, almost doubling the current seven-day average, 95 per day. There may be new hospitalizations.

This week’s Oregon case count shows that the state isn’t too far to reach state expectations. Health officials reported 1,076 new coronavirus cases and 298 hospitalizations on Friday-only two beds shy with the threshold Brown used to establish some COVID-19 limits in the past. .. Friday was the third time this week, and Oregon surpassed 1,000 new cases.

The state has recommended that all Oregon citizens wear masks in public indoor spaces in response to a rapidly spreading infection that the Oregon Department of Health has attributed to highly contagious delta variants. ..

However, when announcing the number of cases on Friday, health officials said they knew 58 people who attended an outdoor music festival in eastern Oregon and tested positive for COVID-19. ..

“This outbreak highlights the importance of protective measures that Oregons can take to limit the spread and potential exposure of COVID-19, such as wearing masks and vaccination,” health officials said. Said in a news release.

Meanwhile, an updated Oregon Health & Science University model showed that the pandemic would spread rapidly if there were virtually no immediate changes in Oregon behavior.

“It’s going to be like a wildfire burning pretty fast,” said Peter Graven, OHSU professor, who publishes a fresh COVID-19 forecast every week. “We intend to obtain herd immunity in some way, and it is not good to do it by infection.”

The mask is an immediate solution to slow the spread, Grave said.

“If we all had the mask on, the Delta variant wouldn’t be doing what we’re seeing right now,” Graven said.

Oregons must start wearing masks now, he said, in order for the state to avoid a surge in infectious diseases. Ideally, at least 70% of the population wear masks and buy state time as more people are vaccinated.

However, relying solely on state mask recommendations and the tendency of people to take precautions in response to the surge in incidents, Graven expects to see only about 60% of Oregons wearing masks. Stated.

“If it’s a state policy, it will catch a lot of people,” Graven said.

State forecast Federal, state, and local officials are addressing the political and public security implications behind taking proactive steps to curb the spread of the disease.

Extensive vaccination is considered to be the de facto most effective way to eradicate COVID-19, but immunization is slowly slowing down, especially in rural, conservative areas of Oregon. .. And authorities are reluctant to put in place the kind of restrictions that many fanfares declared to be a thing of the past just a month ago.

Health officials have given one optimistic view, provided that Oregons take steps to curb the spread.

“Additional state-wide recommendations for wearing masks and a significant increase in hospitalizations may help people adopt more protective behavior and prevent a significant increase in hospitalizations,” health officials said. I am writing.

Health officials did not identify an increase in COVID-19 infection rates as a specific cause, instead stating that the increase “corresponds to an increase in deltas,” and the state resumed on June 30.

State analysis of past incidents highlighted the current metaphor that the United States is seeing an unvaccinated pandemic. As of July 28, counties where less than 60% of the population was immunized showed much higher infection and hospitalization rates than counties where more than 60% of people were vaccinated, according to health officials. rice field.

The state did not predict what would happen if the Oregons began wearing masks, or if the state mandated masks, or reverted social distance and capacity restrictions.

This post will be updated.

-Fedor Emelianenko