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Alpine Fault: Small tremors may tell us a lot about the next rupture of a seismographer
The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs roughly the length of the South Island of New Zealand. YouTube / GNS Science
Tremors too small to be felt may help scientists learn more about the next big rupture along the dangerous Alpine Fault in the South Island.
As part of a new three-year project, scientists have begun installing the densest network to date of seismic recording equipment along the fault, which runs about 800 kilometers on the western side of the South Island between Milford Sound and Marlborough.
By recording the small tremors that unfold within the fault, the team, led by Victoria University professor John Townend and Dr Carolyn Holden, of SeismoCity Ltd, hopes to reveal where the faults occur in a large earthquake in the future.
They also hope to record “seismic paths” between faults and urban centers across the South Island to better predict how much ground shaking can be expected in a major earthquake.
Several terabytes of data will be logged over the next 18 months and then closely analyzed.
The fault, which marks the boundary between the Earth’s crust and the Pacific Ocean, generates earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 8.2 every 260 years.
The most recent was in 1717, and scholars predict that the next big rupture will be within a few decades.
Scientists are deploying equipment — much of it borrowed from the New Mexico Lithosphere Facility’s Portable Seismic Study Group — around the Franz Josef District next week, before moving to Haast.
Besides, the project will be based on more than a dozen seismometers operated in the Southern Alps by Dr Emily Warren Smith of GNS Science and Dr Callum Chamberlain of the University of Victoria.
Townend expected that the study — supported by the Marsden Fund, and dubbed the Southern Long Slim Alpine Array, or salsa — would greatly advance our understanding of bug behavior.
The Alpine Fault, which marks the boundary between the Pacific Ocean and the Australian crustal plate, causes earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 8.2 degrees approximately every 260 years. Images / GNS Science
“Once we collect all the data, we can examine the characteristics of very small earthquakes and look at what they tell us about future large earthquakes and how the three-dimensional geological structure of the South Island affects earthquake shaking,” he said.
“The methods we use enable us to analyze ground shaking across Tai Putini Westland and across southern and central New Zealand in response to many more earthquake rupture scenarios than can be practically studied using conventional methods.
“This will provide us with robust estimates of the shaking that will occur in large earthquakes in the Alps in the future.”
The high density of the machine near the fault will provide insights in unprecedented detail, Holden said.
“We will also be able to record the actual seismic paths between faults and urban centers – and we usually have to calculate these paths by simplifying geology,” she said.
“This data set will not be taken for granted. Each installation in remote and challenging mountain environments will take a team of approximately three hours.”
Each seismometer will be buried in a hole up to a meter deep and placed on a layer of clean sand and paving stone, and connected to a data logger, GPS sensor and solar power system.
Equipment installed in farmland will be fenced off to prevent foreign stock from interfering or damaging it.
Wire mesh will also be used, as will plastic ducts for unburied cables, so that kea and other wildlife do not interfere with the equipment.
The study comes after new evidence from previous earthquake behavior led scientists to revise the odds of a major rupture in the Alpine Fault over the next 50 years from 30 percent to 75 percent.
They also calculated an 82 percent chance that the resulting earthquake would be greater than 8.0 — large enough to cause widespread damage and disruption.
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Sources 2/ https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/alpine-fault-tiny-tremors-may-tell-us-much-about-earthquake-makers-next-rupture/UMICULNI7QSKFKMQXHTB6OJXOM/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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