Experts say the vigilance needed for COVID to move from a pandemic to endemic

Durham, NC-COVID-19 can soon develop from a chaotic and unpredictable pandemic to a more manageable endemic, but remains dangerous and people remain vigilant, safe and responsible. is needed.

Experts said in a virtual media briefing with journalists, they need to continue to understand the global spread of the virus while incorporating vaccines, masking, distance and other wise actions.Watch the briefing YouTube..

Here’s an excerpt from the conversation:

DR.Jonathan Quick, Epidemic Expert

About the transition of COVID-19 to the epidemic period

“It was amazing to see the progress of this variant over the last two years.”

“Fortunately, vaccine-based herd immunity is increasing, and natural infections are protecting more and more people around the world. And new treatments are opening the door to treatment.”

“We have tools to stop COVID-19 as a pandemic. We really need to be clear. The tools developed are great. This new normal state is What it looks like and how quickly you get there depends on two things: what government leaders do, what public health authorities do, and in the science and development community. What continues, and what the public does. We are already on the path of the tools we have. “

“We need to be proactive and tenacious and maintain this trajectory.”

“The movement from the original strain to alpha, delta, and omicron was basically predictable. The only purpose in the life of the virus is to go out and multiply. This is the ongoing King of the Mountain. It’s a game. Omicron was more contagious, so he drove Delta away. As Darwin said, good-looking survival isn’t always the strongest. “

“The transition to the deadline is a bit more random. It’s a roulette of genes. Omicron was lucky. But as long as we have a range of viral activity, more contagious variants will dominate. But what’s really unfortunate is … if there’s a variant that combines both Omicron’s infectivity and Delta’s deadline, so endemic is bringing us back to a manageable level, but we’re quick. Must act on. “

What does the endemic stage look like?

“It’s clear that human behavior is seasonal. It’s still unclear if COVID itself will turn seasonal. It’s something we keep an eye on. It’s basically me. It is the level of immunity that we can lead our daily lives. “

“Looking back on June last year, the virus was still there, I was cautious about where to go, but I was able to live a better life. That’s the level we’re aiming for. is.”

“What we can’t do is go back to complacency and say,’Oh, I won the war.’ This was a virus that was too benevolent for it to happen.”

About “early warning system” to manage endemic stage

“In reality, we still don’t have a clear sense of the durability of the vaccine we have. One Omicron looks like it has fallen to a relatively low level six months ago. If people want to go back, they will tend to say “OK, let’s go back.” However, given that our knowledge of vaccine durability has evolved and we need to make more collaborative efforts towards new vaccines that cover a wider range of coronaviruses. You need to be vigilant. It will take six to twelve months before I can rest assured that we are out of the forest. “

“We need continuous monitoring. To monitor, we really need more systematic global testing, and we must have a public health authority with a better sense of how to respond. We can’t keep up. We’ve seen states and countries over and over again saying, “Well, let’s see what happens.” no. If you go ahead, you can’t redo it. “

“It’s kind of like a weather forecast. By being able to receive warnings, we’ve reduced weather-related deaths by 95% over the last 50 years. Well, when a hurricane comes … most people are right. That’s what we have to do. When you’re in the middle of a hurricane, you’re not going to say, “We’re going to keep the school in session.” And when it gets really bad, you evacuate. “

Global vaccine quality inequality

“The sequence of vaccines we have is not what is needed to guide us to the stage of endemic disease. Efficacy varies greatly from vaccine to vaccine.”

“If boost immunization is required every 6 months and even every 12 months, vaccination protection cannot be maintained, nor can it be maintained against the highest risk populations in the world. . “

“Vaccine development to date has been driven very quickly and effectively by a competitive approach. Now we really need an approach to get the best vaccine possible.”

“We go to places where no public health program has ever taken place, at the level of vaccination required. We need to consider our supply chain. Here in the United States of the vaccines we have. One of the things that helped overcome the level of hesitation is to take an “all viable path” approach. “

“Countries may need to consider introducing the equivalent of CVS and other viable mechanisms, and there is no clear plan for that.”

DR. Professor of CHRISTOPHER WOODS, Medicine, Pathology, Global Health

At the time of transition to endemic

“We feel we are in the transition to a pandemic. I think Omicron represents a major move to the epidemic. That is my optimistic outlook now.”

“This strain is clearly more contagious …. It does not appear to cause serious illness as often as previous repetitions. Let’s be clear. It is a particularly unvaccinated or vulnerable population. Does not mean that it does not cause serious illness. “

“Currently, it seems to have peaked in most parts of the United States.”

“This rapid surge … helps boost herd immunity and, at least in the short term, immunologically resilience.”

About the future of masks

“Count me among those who are not good at wearing masks, but it is my duty to protect others both inside and outside the hospital.”

“Masks may be installed in the medical field in the near future. We will continue to wear more masks than ever before when we fly and other mass transit facilities. I think it will decline due to the epidemic information that our surveillance system provides to us. “

About burnout of hospital staff

“We have seen burnout very often. We are all convinced that we all felt it to some extent. ICU documentation, nurses and first responders are our true in all of this. They were heroes. Their ability to keep up with the surge will undoubtedly diminish. Especially during the surge, their workforce needs to be replenished. “

“That is, we need to make sure that the healthcare system needs vaccines. At least people need to adhere to masking during the surge.”

LAVANYA VASUDEVAN, PH.D, Associate Professor, Family Medicine and Community Health

About the role of vaccines in the transition to endemic stage

“There is no doubt that vaccines will continue to play a central role in the fight against COVID-19 as we move into the endemic stage. The vaccines we have are severe, especially here in the United States. It has an excellent safety profile and effectiveness to prevent infections and death. “

“I’m cautiously optimistic, but I think we should be vigilant and vigilant.”

“This additional immunity from people recovering from Omicron infection represents an opportunity for us. It is necessary to curb the future wave of COVID-19 and move forward towards the epidemic. This is an opportunity to continue using safe and effective vaccines. “

“We know that most people in the ICU today are unvaccinated and that unvaccinated people are still at the highest risk.”

About the evolving vaccination campaign

“Our vaccination campaigns and efforts have certainly evolved between 2020 and 21. So earlier this year our focus was on messages, COVID risks, and the safety of available vaccines. And focused on effectiveness, increased access and clarification of eligibility. “

“As the years went by and vaccines became available, the message focused on vaccine safety and then on incentives.”

“And we saw a move towards compulsory. This basically speaks to the fact that there really isn’t a one-size-fits-all strategy for promoting vaccination. We will use them in combination because everyone has different priorities and motives when it comes to vaccination. “

Vaccine urgency is low at the stage of endemic disease

“COVID fatigue … motivates many people. Currently, 80% of the population over the age of 5 is vaccinated. This is a major achievement for vaccination campaigns.”

“But as we move to more endemic infections, we become more complacent. For example, influenza vaccination rates are much lower than the COVID vaccination rates we are currently seeing. And the way to overcome it is to streamline vaccination messages and resources so that they occur when a surge is likely or the number of cases is likely to increase. That’s where early warning systems and these global surveillance systems play a big role. “

“We need to focus on the message about the importance of vaccines. Our goal is to prevent death, save lives and reduce the social and economic impact of COVID-19. I. All the data we currently have continue to show that vaccines are our most powerful and effective tool. “

Teacher participants

Jonathan Quick, MD
Jonathan Quick is an adjunct professor at the Duke Global Health Institute. He has carried out missions to improve public health in more than 70 countries, “The End of the Epidemic: The Oncoming Threat to Humanity and How to Stop It.. “

Lavanya Vasudevan, Ph.D.
Lavanya Vasdevan He is an assistant professor at Duke’s Faculty of Family Medicine and Community Health and the Institute for Global Health. She is also a faculty member of Duke’s Center for Health Policy and Inequality Studies.

Christopher Woods, MD
Christopher Woods He is a professor of medicine, pathology and global health. He is a co-director of the Hubert-Yeargan Center for Global Health at Duke University and head of the Infectious Diseases Division at the Durham VA Medical Center.

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