Earthquake early warning system?

Professor Martin Wickelski hangs accelerometers on farm animal collars. Credit: Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior

Even today, no one can reliably predict the time and place of the earthquake. However, eyewitnesses have repeatedly reported that animals behave unusually before the earthquake. In an international cooperation project, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior in Konstanz / Radolfzel and the Center for Excellence Group for the Advanced Study of Group Behavior at the University of Konstanz have investigated whether cows, sheep and dogs can detect early signs of earthquakes.

To do this, they connected animal sensors in an earthquake-prone area in northern Italy and recorded their movements over several months. Movement data show that animals were unusually disturbed in the hours before the earthquakes. As animals approached the epicenter of the impending earthquake, they began to act unusually. Thus, the movement features of different animal species in different regions can provide clues as to the location and time of the impending earthquake.

Experts disagree on whether earthquakes can be predicted exactly. However, animals seem to sense imminent danger hours in advance. For example, there are reports that wild animals leave their sleeping and nesting places right before strong earthquakes and that pets become restless. However, these anecdotal accounts often do not stand up to scientific scrutiny because the definition of unusual behavior is often very unclear and the observation period is very short. There are other factors that can explain the behavior of animals.

In order to be able to use animal activity patterns as a type of earthquake early warning system, animals will have to exhibit measurable behavioral changes. Moreover, if they do react to weak physical changes just before the earthquake, they must react more forcefully as they approach the epicenter.

18,000 earthquakes and 13 sensitive animals

In an international cooperation project, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior in Konstanz / Radolfzell and the Center for Advanced Study of Group Behavior, Excellence Group at the University of Konstanz, investigated whether animals really did. On an Italian farm in an earthquake-prone area, they have installed accelerometers to hoops of six cows, five sheep and two dogs who have already shown unusual behavior before earthquakes. Then the researchers recorded their movements continuously over several months. During this period, official authorities reported about 18,000 earthquakes in the area. In addition to the many small, unnoticeable earthquakes, there were also 12 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or higher on the Richter scale.

Then the researchers chose the earthquakes that caused statistically relevant ground movements on the farm. These included strong earthquakes of up to 28 km as well as weaker earthquakes, whose epochs were very close to the farm. However, instead of explicitly searching for abnormal behaviors in the run-up to these events, researchers chose a more cautious approach. They first distinguished all behavioral changes for animals that were unusual according to objective statistical criteria. Professor Martin Wickelski, director of the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior and lead investigator at the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior and lead investigator says the Center for Advanced Study of Group Behavior.

Data – measured as the acceleration of the body of each farm animal (indicating the level of activity) – was measured using statistical models derived from financial econometrics. Co-author Winfried Pohlmeier, professor of econometrics at the University of Konstanz and principal investigator at the Applicants Center, explains: “Since each animal interacts differently in size, speed, and according to species, animal data is similar to data of heterogeneous financial investors.” Study group behavior. Scientists also studied other disturbances such as natural changes in animal activity patterns throughout the day.

Unusual behavior patterns before the earthquake

In this way, the researchers discovered unusual behavior patterns up to 20 hours before the earthquake. “The closer the animals are to the center of the impending shock, the sooner they will change their behavior. This is exactly what you expect when physical changes occur more frequently at the center of the impending earthquake and become weaker with increasing distance.” Wickelsky. However, this effect was only evident when researchers looked at all the animals together. “Collectively, animals seem to exhibit unrecognizable capabilities on an individual level.”

It is still unclear how animals can feel the impending earthquakes. Animals may feel the ionization of air due to large rock pressures in quake regions with their fur. It is also possible for animals to smell gases from quartz crystals before the earthquake.

Earthquake early warning system

The real-time data that researchers measured and recorded since December 2019 shows what an animal earthquake early warning system might look like: a chip on the collar sends motion data to a central computer every three minutes. This results in a warning signal if you record significantly increased animal activity for at least 45 minutes.

The researchers once received such a warning. “After three hours, a small earthquake rocked the area,” says Wickelski. “The epicenter was just below the animal stables.”

However, before animal behavior can be used to predict earthquakes, researchers need to monitor more animals over longer periods of time in different earthquake regions around the world. For this, they want to use the ICARUS global animal monitoring system on the International Space Station ISS, which will begin its scientific operation in a few weeks.

Can your dog expect an earthquake? Researchers say the evidence is shaken. More information: Martin Wikelski et al. Predicting potential short-range earthquakes by observing farm animals, Ethics (2020). DOI: 10.1111 / eth.13078 provided by the University of Konstanz

Quote: Sixth Sense of Animals: An earthquake early warning system? (2020, July 3) Retrieved July 3, 2020 from https://phys.org/news/2020-07-sixth-animals-early-earthquakes.html

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