Japan begins an earthquake warning system off the North Pacific coast

The Japanese government on Friday implemented a new alert system in seven coastal prefectures from Chiba to Hokkaido to warn of aftershocks in the event of a 7.0-magnitude earthquake or greater in any of two deep-sea trenches in the Pacific Ocean where massive earthquakes are feared.

The warnings are designed to encourage evacuation preparedness against additional earthquakes originating in the Japan and Chishima trenches off the country’s northern coast from the Pacific Ocean.

The government estimates that a M9.0 earthquake in either trench could trigger a huge tsunami, which would produce waves of up to 30 meters in parts of Hokkaido and Iwate prefectures in the north of the country.

The March 2011 M9.0 earthquake that occurred along the Japan Trench was a later earthquake, two days after the M7.3 earthquake in the same vicinity.

A poster of the newly introduced earthquake warning system warning of strong earthquakes in the trenches of Japan and Chishima, is displayed in Aomori, Aomori Prefecture, on December 16, 2022 (Kyodo)

The system will be in effect in 182 municipalities in Hokkaido, Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Chiba prefectures that stretch in the far north of the country all the way to the border with Tokyo.

Under the alerts, residents will be required to take action including being prepared to evacuate at short notice, securing warm clothing and confirming the location of the nearest evacuation

The Japan Meteorological Agency will issue the alert for up to about two hours after a M7.0 earthquake or stronger earthquake. If there are no subsequent earthquakes, the alarm will be lifted after a week.

The Japan Trench extends from Hokkaido to the east of the Boso Peninsula near Tokyo, and the Chishima Trench is located off the Chishima Islands, also known as the Kuril Islands.

While the government has acknowledged that the chances of an earthquake of M8.0 or higher are about one in 100, it expects to issue an alert about once every two to three years.

In September, the government pledged to expand financial assistance to 108 municipalities in the seven prefectures that are at risk of being hit by a strong earthquake from the Japan trenches or Chishima and particularly need strong disaster control measures.

The government also set a 10-year target to reduce the potential number of casualties by 80 percent in a massive earthquake in the region, with the central government predicting the death toll could reach 199,000.

A government task force reported in March that rapid evacuations could reduce deaths by about 80 percent.

Toru Matsuzawa, a professor of seismology at the Tohoku University Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions, said he hopes the new system will provide people “an opportunity to review their evacuation preparations.”

“We cannot rule out the possibility that a massive M9 earthquake may hit the Japan Trench or Chishima Trench in the near future. If the areas under warnings take countermeasures, they can reduce the loss of life including from tsunamis,” he said.

Related coverage:

M6.1 earthquake hits central Japan, shaking Fukushima and Ibaraki

Feature: The Gathering helps brighten the lives of people in trouble in the 2011 disaster

A tsunami could kill 149,000 people in Hokkaido in a worst-case earthquake scenario

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