Was the Kaikoura earthquake as complex as earthquakes? The project aims to find out

Researchers are trying to find out if the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake, which tore more than 20 errors, is as complex as earthquakes – or some may be more complicated.

Kaikoura’s 7.8-magnitude event is believed to have been the most sophisticated earthquake ever anywhere in the world.

But it also happened after the technical advances meant that the researchers were more able to know the errors that were involved than they would have done in the past.

Now, EQC-funded researchers are feeding data about faults and earthquakes in North Canterbury and Marlboro into computer models to determine the probability of complicated earthquakes in the future. The goal is to develop models that can be applied anywhere.

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Part of the reason for its importance is that if a faulty rupture spreads to other errors, the earthquake not only covers a wider area, it can also be stronger – with more ground shaking than would have been limited if it had been limited to only the first error.

John Kirk Anderson / Staff

The Kaikoura earthquake caused extensive damage to roads and railways north of Kaikoura.

Lead researcher Dr. Tim Stahl, of the University of Canterbury, said that if the Kaikoura earthquake was limited to the Hummus error – the first rupture of a fault – it would have been a 7.0 earthquake.

But due to the involvement of more than 20 other errors, the rips met at a 7.8-size event. It was about 16 times stronger than it would have happened if the first mistake had been involved.

Two other major earthquakes that ruptured several faults were the 7.1 magnitude earthquake in Darfield in September 2010 and a 6.5 magnitude earthquake in March 1987.

“We have a basic idea of ​​the various factors that govern whether an earthquake involves multiple errors,” said Stahl.

“One key is simply the distance between errors.” But there were a host of other factors, some of them particularly complex.

New Zealand’s bedrock characteristics could allow multiple faults to rupture, and another EQC funded project was researching this area.

John Kirk Anderson / Staff

The earthquake-affected northern façade of Christ Church Church in Christchurch.

At the moment, the best model for predicting the probability of many crashes to be torn apart is the forecasts of the California Union earthquake rupture, developed using data from around the world, but more work is needed taking into account New Zealand conditions.

“New Zealand’s earthquakes are inherently complex,” said Stahl. Scientists had no clear idea why this was, although they did have some evidence.

Among the results of the project that the researchers were searching for were an indication of whether earthquakes could become more complex than the Kaikōura event, as well as the number of times they were much simpler.

“If the Kaikoura earthquake is just an average result, this is very useful. And Stahl said this increases the magnitude of the usual earthquakes in North Canterbury to the Marlboro area.

But if Kaikōura was as complex as earthquakes, he thought that would be comfortable. He said: “I think most people hope that it will not be more complicated.”

“We want to create a set of different rip scenarios and classify them according to different possibilities.”

Drone footage from various sources reveals the severe damage caused by the devastating earthquake north of Canterbury, which measured 7.8 in November 2016.

Stall said computer modeling was the core of the two-year project, as it involved many years of field mapping errors and fieldwork after the Kaikoura earthquake by measuring things like malfunctions.

The work will give an indication of how often certain levels of Earth’s vibration can be expected in different places. It was one piece of the puzzle that would lead in time to improvements in the building code.

He said that computer modeling testing against real data was an important part of the project.

“We have an enormous amount of data from Kaikōura, Darfield to Edgecumbe. This gives us a great basis for our modeling testing and making sure it delivers good results for New Zealand conditions.”

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