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The American economy creates only 12,000 jobs following the Boeing strike and the hurricanes which weigh on the labor market

The American economy creates only 12,000 jobs following the Boeing strike and the hurricanes which weigh on the labor market

 


The U.S. labor market added far fewer jobs than expected in October as weather disruptions and strikes weighed on the job market.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday showed the labor market added 12,000 jobs in October, fewer than the 100,000 economists expected.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, in part because of a difference in how the BLS collects data for that measure versus monthly job additions. Workers who had a job but were not earning money would not be counted as unemployed in the household survey, which is where the unemployment rate comes from. They would not be considered employed in the payroll survey, which is how job additions are compiled.

Job creation in October was well below the 223,000 created in September. Monthly job additions for August and September were also revised down by a total of 112,000.

“Ignore this first line [job additions]”, look at that 4.1%, and move on,” Joe Brusuelas, RSM's chief economist, told Yahoo Finance. He added: “It’s all just noise.”

Economists warned ahead of Friday's release that recent hurricanes and a strike by Boeing (BA) workers were weighing on labor market data for October. The BLS confirmed this was the case in its Friday release.

“It is likely that wage employment estimates in some sectors were affected by the hurricanes,” the BLS wrote in the press release. “However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the monthly change in national estimates of employment, hours or earnings because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate the effects of extreme weather events There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey.

The BLS added that manufacturing jobs fell by 46,000 in October “largely due to strikes.”

Elsewhere in Friday's report, wage growth, an important measure for gauging inflationary pressures, rose to 4.1% year-on-year, compared with a 4% annual gain in September. On a monthly basis, wages increased by 0.4%, compared to a 0.3% increase in September. In addition, the activity rate fell to 62.6%, from 62.7%.

A construction worker stops for a breeze while taking a break from work under an American flag in Malibu on July 3, 2024. (Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images) Genaro Molina via Getty Images

This report is the last major economic release before the Federal Reserve's next policy decision on November 7. Market expectations for this meeting changed little after the jobs report. As of Friday morning, markets were pricing in a roughly 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, up from a 95% chance seen a week ago, according to the tool CME FedWatch.

The story continues

Read more: What the Fed's rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans and credit cards

Generally speaking, recent data, outside of the monthly jobs report, have shown a gradually cooling labor market. Data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that job postings fell to their lowest level since January 2021 during the month of September. At the same time, the resignation rate, a sign of worker confidence, fell to 1.9% in September, from a revised 2% in August. This is the lowest resignation rate since June 2020.

The overall picture is that the labor market continues to calm (even beyond the effects of the hurricane), which should allow the Fed to maintain the pace of rate cuts in November and December. wrote Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at the Carson Group, in a note Friday.

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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2/ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/october-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-just-12000-jobs-as-boeing-strike-hurricanes-weigh-on-labor-market-175408734.html

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