From Cold War 2.0 to World War 3.0

When the book was published earlier in 2024, Hamas' attack on Israel had already sparked a major military conflict in Gaza, and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen were disrupting global shipping through the Suez Canal by firing Iranian missiles on ships in the Red Sea.

Today, in late 2024, the Ukrainians are aggressively fighting to retain the Russian territories they retook in August, and Russia is deploying North Korean troops to this war zone.

Israel attacked Hezbollah (another Iranian-funded proxy) in southern Lebanon, and Israel and Iran now directly exchange major missile offensives. Additionally, three times this year, China has significantly intensified its gray zone military suppression tactics against Taiwan.

All that remains is for Beijing to amplify its aggression against Taiwan to the point of a total blockade, and Cold War 2.0 will turn into World War 3.0.

A new American president will be elected next week in this tense geopolitical dynamic. I'm 67 years old and this is by far the most important American election of my lifetime.

If Kamala Harris wins, we will see the United States continue to strengthen its security alliances around the world, particularly in the Pacific with Japan and South Korea, in order to push back the four autocracies leading Cold War 2.0 and put the world on alert. on the brink of World War II 3.0: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. If Donald Trump wins, it's anyone's guess what the erratic would-be autocrat will do.

Among the world's most threatening autocracies, Russia appears to be the greatest threat. Putin punches above his weight because, frankly, he loves to punch.

However, the central actor in the network of autocracies remains China. As with so many other things in the world, if you want to find the source of energy, just follow the money. Indeed, China's gargantuan economy, the second largest in the world, is already financing Cold War 2.0.

China keeps the Russian economy afloat by purchasing huge volumes of oil and gas from Russia and in return shipping massive quantities of cars, machinery and technical components to Russia. These elements are essential to keep Moscow's war economy producing weapons and munitions and to prevent the domestic population from rising up against the regime.

Without China, Russia would have long since withdrawn from Ukraine. Instead, with the help of China, and now North Korean troops, Moscow continues its outright aggression against kyiv, in the hope that a more flexible American president (namely Mr. Trump) will bring Ukraine to capitulate. Once again, the importance of November 5 cannot be overstated.

China also finances Tehran by purchasing almost all of the oil exported by Iran. Iran then uses this money, among other things, to make weapons and ammunition for its proxy fighters in the Middle East, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Moscow then provides satellite data to the Houthis to enable them to target ships passing through the Red Sea, thereby cutting off the Suez Canal shipping route. Iran reciprocates by providing Russia with drones and ballistic missiles which then wreak havoc in Ukraine.

China also buys 95% of North Korea's exports, keeping the pariah country alive. North Korea has supplied millions of artillery shells to Russia for use against the Ukrainian military, and more recently Pyongyang has also delivered ballistic missiles to Moscow.

In exchange, the North Korean regime will likely receive high-end missile technology from Moscow with which the Kim Jong Un regime will be able to better threaten South Korea and Japan.

Yet the engine of autocracies is China, and democracies ensure China's economic power by conducting multibillion-dollar trade with China each year.

The next time you buy something made in China at your local retailer, remember the essential role that the consumer of democracies plays in financing the network of autocracies, allowing them to fight the democracies in the current Cold War 2.0 and the next World War 3.0.

The main task of the next US president will be to stop the massive flow of economic wealth from democracies to China.

After a career as a technology lawyer, Takach is currently a senior fellow at the Bill Graham Center for Contemporary History at the University of Toronto and author of Cold War 2.0: Artificial Intelligence in the New Battle Between Russia, China and America.