UK jobs market cools as companies warn of budget hit to jobs and prices | UK Unemployment and Employment Statistics

The UK jobs market showed signs of further cooling after unemployment rose in September and wage growth also slowed as business leaders warned the budget could hit job demand and lead to higher prices.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the three months to September from 4% in the previous quarter, amid growing signs of a slowing job market.

The ONS warned that job market figures should be treated with caution due to data collection issues, but separate figures showed the number of employees on company payrolls fell by 9,000 during the quarter and vacancies were at their lowest level since May 2021 for the 28th consecutive month. appeared to have decreased.

The Government has come under pressure from businesses after it outlined tax rises in the Budget, including increases to the minimum wage and employer national insurance (NIC), which employers said could lead to job cuts.

Trade groups warned that latest figures showed the jobs market was slowing as businesses braced for higher costs.

Many businesses are saying they must raise prices, put hiring and investment plans on hold and look for ways to cut costs, said Jane Gratton, deputy director of public policy at the British Chambers of Commerce. There are limits to how much you can afford to pay extra costs.

Matthew Percival, of the CBI lobby group, said: These figures come against a backdrop of growing concerns about a sharp increase in employment costs following last month's rise in the NIC, the Employment Rights Bill and the recent national living wage increase.

Last week Asda and Sainsburys said the tax rise would cost them $100 million and $140 million respectively. They have warned that these costs could be passed on in the form of higher prices, with Tesco set to increase its National Insurance claims by $1 billion this parliament.

But other economists said Rachel Reeves' budget could be a down payment on fixing public services that would help increase the available workforce by helping more people find jobs.

Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England, told the Guardian that the obsession with additional taxes was unhealthy. You can't have it both ways. Building the right business environment requires investment. [public services] And for that, he said, we have to pay those costs.

Long-term youth unemployment remains at its highest level since the start of the Covid pandemic, according to the latest snapshot, with more than nine million people being economically inactive, meaning they are neither employed nor looking for work.

Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said the government was prioritizing helping people find work through its $240 million investment plan ahead of publishing a white paper on the issue in the coming weeks. .

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She added: “Nearly a record number of 2.8 million people are out of work due to poor health.” It's bad for people, it's bad for business, and it's disrupting the economy.

Underscoring a further slowdown in the jobs market, the annual growth rate in average regular earnings of employees excluding bonuses in the UK eased to 4.8% in the three months to September from 4.9% in the three months to August.

Economists said the figures were consistent with Bank of England forecasts and could encourage the central bank to stay on its rate-cutting path after cutting borrowing costs last week.

But the bank's chief economist, Huw Pill, said the latest figures showed inflationary pressures were still too high for comfort. Pill, speaking at a conference hosted by Swiss bank UBS, said the UK's productivity growth outlook was at such a high level that it would be difficult to reconcile it with the UK's inflation target, with pay rises being quite sticky.

Payroll growth remains well above inflation, which fell to 1.7% in September, helping households rebuild their finances after the biggest hit to living standards in decades.

Salary growth, including bonuses, also increased from 3.8% to 4.3%, mainly due to one-off civil servant payments.

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