The most dangerous stage of the US Covid-19 crisis may not have come yet | Barry Aichen Green | Business

AhPrill marked the most dramatic and possibly dangerous stage of the Covid-19 crisis in the United States. The death toll increased, bodies were piled on refrigerated trucks outside New York City hospitals, and desperate lack of ventilation and personal protective equipment. The economy has fallen off the proverbial cliff, with unemployment rising sharply to 14.7%.

Since then, the supply of medical and protective equipment has improved. The doctor knows when to put the ventilator on the patient and when to leave. We recognize the importance of protecting vulnerable people, including the elderly. Infected people are younger on average and deaths are declining. With the help of coronaviruses, rescues, and the help of the Economic Security (Carees) Act, economic activity is stable but at a low level.

Or it is said so.

In fact, the more dangerous stage of the US crisis could be now, not really last spring. Mortality among infected people has declined with improved treatment and a more favorable age profile, but the death toll still reaches approximately 1,000 per day. This is in line with the level at the beginning of April, reflecting the fact that the number of new infections is halving again.

In any case, mortality is only one aspect of the virus’s casualties. Many surviving Covid-19 patients continue to suffer chronically Cardiovascular disorders Mental dysfunction. When 40,000 new cases a day are normal, the prevalence and impact on human health and economic well-being is truly disastrous.

And there is every sign that many Americans, or at least current leaders, whether they like it or not, are prepared to accept 40,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths a day. They have insurance up to a number. They are rushed to lockdown. They have politicized masks.

This is also a more dangerous stage for the economy. In March and April, policy makers withdrew all stops to stop economic bleeding. But when the economy heads south again, less policy support is available. But Federal Reserve Can always devise another asset purchase program. It has already lowered interest rates to zero, hoovering many of the assets involved. That’s why Fed officials call Congress and the White House to take action.

Unfortunately, Congress seems unable to recapitulate the bipartisanship that enabled the passage of the Cares Act at the end of March. The weekly $600 (£462) supplement to unemployment benefits has expired. Divisive rhetoric from Donald Trump And other Republican leaders in “democratic-led” cities imply that the card does not include support for state and local governments.

As a result, despite the lack of fiscal stimulus and the flu season and the second Covid-19 wave, if the economy fell twice, the additional financial and I cannot get financial support.

Of course, the silver bullet that everyone is counting on is a vaccine. This is, in fact, the most serious danger for everyone.

Vaccines are likely to be launched in late October at the request of Donald Trump, whether or not they are safe and effective in Phase 3 clinical trials. This ghost reminds me of Gerald Ford’s surge in swine flu vaccine. Guillain-Barre syndrome And Multiple deaths.. This episode is Controversial scientific papers The link between vaccination and autism is Modern anti-wax movement..

The danger is not only the side effects of defective vaccines, but the widespread public resistance even to vaccines that have passed Phase 3 clinical trials and are endorsed by the scientific community. This is especially worrisome as skepticism about the benefits of vaccination tends to rise after a pandemic that has been unavoidable by public health officials, who are allegedly competent anyway.

Study live a pandemic Negatively affects confidence The vaccine is safe, and erases those affected to vaccinate their children. This is especially trueImpressive yearWhen exposed (18 to 25 years old). It is at this age that the attitude towards public policy, including health policy, is permanently formed. This is a growing skepticism of vaccination, observed at different times and places, and continues to balance the life of the individual.

The difference now is that Trump and his nominees risk exacerbating the problem by making reckless and unreliable claims. Therefore, if no measures are taken to reassure the public about the independence and completeness of the scientific process, only the alternatives to “collective immunity”, given the many known suspected comorbidities of Covid-19. Is left. Jeez.

All this serves as a warning that the most dangerous crisis phase in the United States is likely to begin next month. And that’s before considering that October is also the beginning of the flu season.

• Barry Eichengreen is a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley and previously a senior policy advisor to the IMF.

© Project Syndicate