Coronavirus: Epidemic spread in the UK when R number exceeds 1

Evidence of an increase in coronavirus infections in the UK in recent weeks has prompted the government to increase R-values ​​to 1-1.2.

This shows that the epidemic is growing for the first time since March.

A survey of thousands of people in the United Kingdom also doubled every 7 to 8 days, showing a marked increase between the north and adolescents.

But officials said older people were also worried about signs of infection.

New law on how many people can socialize indoors and outdoors Introduced from Monday.

of “Six rules” Limit indoor and outdoor gatherings in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The number of new daily cases of this virus confirmed in the United Kingdom increased to 3,539 on Friday-an increase of over 600 yesterday.

Yvonne Doyle, director of medicine at the UK Public Health Service, said young people “have the largest share of new cases,” but they also infect older people at the highest risk of serious illness. Said that.

She followed the rules of social distance, washing her hands regularly and warning people to cover her face in an enclosed space.

Birmingham is up to date Areas to introduce new limits after a surge in cases.. More than 1.75 million people have been targeted due to stricter restrictions To the west of Scotland And from Monday Face mask must be worn at a Welsh shop..

Three separate, large-scale studies have shown that the coronavirus has recurred extensively throughout the UK population.

And that R (playback) number -Each infected person shows the number of others infected with the virus-is also increasing.

As it is now, if it is greater than 1, the number of infected people is increasing.

However, the virus is at much lower levels throughout the UK than at the peak of the April pandemic.

“Call of the awakening of the people”

The UK is entering a new phase of the coronavirus pandemic.

Since the lockdown, we’ve decided how to deal with a fallen case. However, the R number has surpassed the critical level of 1 for the first time since March, supported by a set of data showing that cases are increasing again.

This isn’t limited to hotspots like Bolton-a government adviser told me that the rise had spread throughout the country.

They said today it was a “call for awakening” for the country. There are already some signs that the number of people in hospitals is starting to increase.

But this is not an iterative build to lockdown. Cases are at much lower levels and are growing more slowly.

Prior to lockdown, the R-value was about 3, and cases doubled every 3-4 days. It’s about half that now.

Coronaviruses will be a major challenge until vaccines are available.

Therefore, the decisive problem in the potentially difficult winter is how to balance keeping the virus under control and keeping our lives alive.

REACT research Of the more than 150,000 volunteers in the United Kingdom, one of three new community-level data sources, “acceleration of infection” was seen in late August and early September.

Infection levels are rising throughout England, but he said, especially in the northeast, northwest and Yorkshire.

In addition, the number of positive cases increased in all age groups up to 65 years, and the growth rate was the highest in 18 to 24 years.

Professor Paul Elliott, head of research at London Imperial College, said the data clearly showed a “prone to concern about coronavirus infection”, with cases growing rapidly across England and “no longer focused on key workers.” I haven’t. ”

He said there was evidence of a “community epidemic” that was not the result of more people being tested.

National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) second dataset In the UK, 39,700 new viruses occurred in the first week of September, estimated to be 11,000 more than the previous week.

ONS numbers are based on thousands of swab tests performed in households, whether people have symptoms or not.

It was estimated that there would be no increase in the number of cases in the same week in Wales, However, Prime Minister Mark Drakeford has announced that people will have to wear face masks in stores. In response to the recent increase in the number of cases.

Katherine Kent of the ONS infection survey said the results suggest that “the number of Covid-19 infections in the UK has increased in recent weeks, with higher rates among people aged 17-34.”

Nicola sturgeon warned The average number of cases in Scotland “more than triples every three weeks” There are some areas of particular concern, such as Lanarkshire, Greater Glasgow, and Clyde.

And from the third set of numbers, Covid Symptom Survey AppIs tracking the health of about 4 million people in the UK, but also suggests an increase in new cases since the end of August. For the first time since mid-June, the numbers have increased significantly.

Professor James Naismith of Oxford University said that if tests were available, young people would have been affected to the same extent in January, but much has changed for the better since then.

“We know that advances in medicine and science have improved significantly, so even if the infection rate is as bad as March and April, there will be far fewer deaths.

“More people wash their hands and stay socially distant-especially vulnerable and surrounding-more people will see fewer deaths and illnesses,” he said. Said.