Building earthquake resilience in Pakistan: 15 years after the 2005 earthquake

by Ella Kim, Bilal Khalid, Elif Ayhan and Ahsan Tehsin

Fifteen years ago, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern Pakistan. More than 70,000 people were killed and the country incurred economic losses equivalent to 2.6 percent of its gross domestic product. October 8, 2005, which has been celebrated since the National Day of Resilience in Pakistan, triggered a paradigm shift in the country’s approach – from disaster response to disaster risk management.

Since the 2005 earthquake, Pakistan has developed legal, policy and institutional frameworks for disaster risk management, including the establishment of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Regional Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs), and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (DDMAs) at sub-national levels.

However, seismic risks in Pakistan, a country crossing a network of active geological fault lines, have only increased. According to the World Bank’s assessment, if the 2005 earthquake happened today, it could nearly double – $ 2.8 billion – cost residential property alone.

The 8th of October 2005 triggered a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s approach – from disaster response to disaster risk management

Moreover, the current density and quality of the built environment in Pakistan increases its vulnerability to seismic hazards. According to Dr. Sarush Lodi of the NED University of Engineering and Technology, the nation’s building inventory comprises about two-thirds of brickwork, with only 8 percent of buildings using reinforced concrete. This makes Pakistan more vulnerable to earthquakes than countries such as Cyprus, Iran and Armenia that have similar levels of seismic exposure. Local building regulations, or bylaws, rarely adhere to building codes, and even in areas with stronger internal regulations, enforcement is a problem.

To enhance its resilience to natural disasters and maintain inclusive growth, Pakistan will need to assess seismic vulnerabilities, identify high-risk structures, and implement comprehensive earthquake risk management programs. These technical and legal programs will need to bridge the gap between policies, regulations and practices by enabling legislative reforms, modernizing building codes, and strengthening implementation mechanisms, including capacity building and public participation.

The World Bank is actively engaging with the Government of Pakistan on the seismic resilience agenda. Last October, I arranged a knowledge-sharing event for a delegation of policymakers and practitioners from Pakistan to study the emergency and disaster risk management systems established by the Turkish government after the 1999 Marmara earthquake. Knowledge exchange relied on the historical cooperative relationship between Pakistan and Turkey through the exchange of ideas and experiences to make both countries more Resilience in the face of natural disasters.

To enhance cooperation and coordination across sectors, the Pakistan delegation has been carefully selected from a wide range of federal and provincial government agencies, technical organizations, and academia, consisting of representatives from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the National Disaster Risk Management Fund (NDRMF), and representatives of Provincial governments, the Pakistan Engineering Council, the Capital Development Authority, the Sindh Building Supervision Authority, and the NED University of Engineering and Technology.

Knowledge sharing allowed learning from and exchange of experiences on emergency and disaster risk management based on best practices in Turkey, such as earthquake master plans, institutional and regulatory frameworks, and modification of critical infrastructure. She also assisted the participants in analyzing the challenges facing Pakistan in managing seismic risks and discussing options to address them.

Pakistan will need to assess seismic vulnerabilities, identify high-risk structures, and implement comprehensive risk management programs

The Pakistani delegation agreed that action should be taken now to mitigate the risks of earthquakes. Notably, based on discussions during this study tour, the Pakistan Engineering Council has begun updating the Pakistan Construction Code – Earthquake Provisions 2007. This updated Building Code is a critical element to enhance seismic resilience for future infrastructure investments, but it also needs to be coupled with mechanisms. Effective enforcement, along with assessments and retrofits of the existing infrastructure.

While the scale of the challenge is daunting, there are clear and concrete actions that can be taken to reduce earthquake risks in Pakistan today, focusing on both soft and hard interventions. First, structural innovations, such as retrofits – modifying existing structures to make them more resistant – can enhance the resilience of existing public infrastructure, especially schools and hospitals in vulnerable areas. Second, these risk reduction investments could be complemented by measures that enhance capacities in emergency communication, information management and response. Third, all buildings, not just priority public buildings, could be made more flexible by improving building codes and land use regulations.

This comprehensive, multi-pronged approach renews commitment to the National Resilience Day goal by ensuring that Pakistan is better prepared before the next earthquake strikes.

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