India’s coronavirus infection counts are on track to overtake the United States.Then the number suddenly decreased

It was only a few weeks ago that eerie predictions were approaching India. Experts said the country was ready to overtake the United States with a coronavirus infection.

The country has long been expected to peak somewhere in November, but due to its large population, it has a large daily number and probably some peaks.

But suddenly something strange happened. The number of cases began to decrease.

Since India plunged into a national blockade in March, the country has experienced a relentless increase in cases of coronavirus. It reaches a peak of about 100,000 cases a day in early September.

However, its daily aggregates and deaths are now less than half of what it was before, and the United States currently records nearly 100,000 cases per day.

A government-appointed committee has declared that the peak has passed.

Professor Shamika Ravi of the Brookings Institution said the numbers were declining across the pandemic, and the decline seemed “reliable.”

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“The test positive rate, which means the percentage of tests that are positive, is steadily declining,” she said.

“The government is currently stepping up testing in almost every state.”

Professor Rabbi said the total number of cases does not mean that all states are in the same position, given India’s very large population. In fact, some states, such as West Bengal and Delhi, are still experiencing increasing cases.

However, the fact that infections have declined in some of the worst-hit states also means that total counts have declined.

“The decline did not begin in the same place at the same time,” she said.

Maharashtra and its capital, Mumbai, have long been the epicenter of India’s pandemic, accounting for about one-fifth of the country’s total and more than one-third of the dead.

It was one of the big states where the coronavirus turnaround helped signal the end of the peak.

Dr. Shuti Tandan manages 26 intensive care units at a private hospital in Mumbai for confirmed and suspected coronavirus patients.

The last time ABC talked to her in MayAfter the city endured a surge of weeks, she talked about a sleepless night after the hospital had to reject a seriously ill patient because it had reached capacity.

But now there are often spare beds.

“Maybe we have spare beds three out of four days a week,” said Dr. Tandan.

However, while infection rates elsewhere in India have plummeted, the capital city of New Delhi has plunged into a third wave after a recent festival.

A series of serological studies that detect the presence of coronavirus antibodies also suggest that the actual infection rate is much higher than the official data.

There are also concerns about the widespread use of rapid antigen testing, which is less reliable than the “gold standard” polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test.

Tragedy and hero stories emerge from hotspots

Ambulance driver Arriff Khan was very worried about catching the coronavirus and spreading it to his family. He slept for months at work as the number of incidents exploded in the Indian capital.

He and his colleagues provided free services to residents of Delhi, transported coronavirus patients, moved the bodies of COVID-19 victims, and even provided the last rites and cremation.

Despite careful attention, veteran drivers were infected with the virus.

The 48-year-old died in October, and his wife and children received no income or government support.

“During this pandemic, we asked him to quit this job,” his son Mohammad Arsif told ABC.

“But he didn’t listen to us. He told us to continue his community service.”

Delhi is one of the most devastated cities in India with more than 370,000 cases recorded and more than 5,000 daily infections.

Shaheed Bhagat Singh Sewa Dal, the organization in which Mr. Khan worked since March, has transported more than 500, 700 patients to the hospital for cremation, the last for 70 patients whose families are quarantined. The ceremony was held.

It continues to be serviced by ambulance drivers in addition to non-coronavirus patients.

The founder of the organization, Jitendra Shunty, is also infected with the virus on the job.

“Our morale is [Mr Khan’s] Death. “

“this is [the] The ultimate sacrifice for humanity. “

India has not yet left the forest

Experts and healthcare professionals say the outbreak was mitigated if it slowed for the first time in India since the pandemic began.

But no one is ready to relax yet.

Dr. Tandan said the symptoms they were experiencing worsened while the number of patients decreased.

This includes an increased prevalence of lung fibrosis, which causes hardening and scarring of lung tissue.

“Some patients come back with repeated reductions in oxygenation,” she said.

“A scan shows that COVID-19 leaves scars in the lungs, which makes the disease seem very untolerant,” she said.

There are also some warnings that the state may withstand more waves of infection in the coming weeks.

Pollution in Delhi usually soars in November and December, and doctors warn that toxic air can exacerbate the rate and severity of infection.

The cool winter weather in the northern states is also a concern. That’s because it probably means people spend more time indoors.

“The literature that comes out teaches us that lower temperatures make the virus particularly infectious,” said Professor Rabbi.

There are also several upcoming festivals, including Diwali, the largest festival in the Hindu calendar.

Doctors are afraid that people will be alert due to the reduction of infectious diseases.

“That’s a big worry,” said Dr. Tandan.

However, Professor Ravi said the state responded to an important lesson.

“All the time, the tests have only improved,” she said.

Whatever the challenges ahead, Delhi ambulance drivers promise to continue fighting the virus.

“There have been some peak days in the last few months,” said Jitendra Singh Shunty.

“We are pleased to be able to serve our country when needed.”