Health
Thanksgiving and COVID-19: Risks of gathering for your county holiday
Health experts strongly recommend avoiding gathering with friends and extended family members for Thanksgiving dinners and using the data to support it.
Risk Calculator: The safest and most dangerous thing to do this holiday season
Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UCSF, helped us calculate the numbers based on a positive rate of about 5% across California.
“That is, if you randomly choose someone to spend Thanksgiving with, one person will have a 5% chance of getting infected,” he said.
However, when three people get together, the risk increases to 9.5%. Six people in a mixed household are at even higher risk. There is a 22% chance that someone will get infected.
If you increase your invitation list to 10 people, the risk is up to 37%. For 12 people, there is a 43% chance that someone at the table will be infected with COVID-19.
Relation: Is San Francisco heading for the purple layer? COVID-19 cases surged in November, data
Of course, the risks depend on the size of the community. An interactive map created by the ABC7 News data journalism team using data from Georgia Institute of Technology can be used to identify the dangers of where you live.
You can zoom in on the county and adjust the size of the event.
Click to view the map in a large window here..
For example, if you zoom in on San Francisco County and select a rally size of 15 people, there is an 8% risk that someone at that dinner will be infected with COVID-19. In Napa County, the risk of gatherings of that size is 17%. In Santa Clara County, that’s 10%.
The larger the group size, the greater the risk.
(Editor’s Note: The numbers cited in this report show potential risks associated with group gatherings and examples of exponentially increasing risk as the gatherings grow. 5% positive The rate is that 5% of the general population is always infected and transmitted.)
Things are much worse in other states of countries that are experiencing large outbreaks.
“Some people say they’ll meet at Thanksgiving and resume the New Year’s funeral.” Dr. Andrew Pavia said, Utah doctor. “That’s a dark word, but at this point we really have to be honest.”
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