Experts warn parliament of the risks of the Istanbul earthquake – report

Cumhuriyet newspaper reported on Saturday that experts have warned the Turkish parliament that Istanbul is still at risk of a major earthquake.

Cumhuriyet quoted Haluk Ozner, director of the Kandilli Observatory and the Institute for Seismological Research, as saying before a parliamentary investigation on this issue that the energy required for a seismic event with a magnitude of more than 7 on the Richter scale has already accumulated in the Marmara region where the city is located.

“On average, there is an earthquake of 7 to 7.9 magnitude every six and a half years in this region,” he said, referring to the Anatolian Peninsula as a whole.

The last earthquake of the same magnitude struck near Van Province in the southeast of the country in 2011, killing more than 600 people. Statistically speaking, Ozner said another date is coming soon: “I am not trying to present a disaster scenario, but we are now in the ninth year (since Van).”

According to Ozener, the belief in Turkey that an earthquake in a smaller portion of one of the many long fault lines running across the country would reduce the risk of other large-scale seismic events in the region is not accurate.

“The idea that smaller earthquakes take energy away from larger earthquakes is correct in theory but is not practically possible,” he said.

The 6.9-magnitude earthquake that shook the western province of Izmir on October 30 killed 115 people, higher than similar events elsewhere in the world, raising concerns about Turkey’s preparedness for similar events in the future.

Cumhuriyet newspaper said Ozner welcomed the government’s goal of resisting earthquakes from 300,000 to 500,000 buildings annually, but warned that at this rate it would take 15 years to complete work across the country.

“I hope the earthquake will wait for us that long,” he said.

An earthquake that struck the Marmara Sea in 1999 and struck parts of Istanbul killed 17,000 people, most of them in the neighboring Izmit province, and displaced 250,000 others.

The 1999 earthquake marked the last major break in the North Anatolian fault line near its western end. Experts said the next break may be near Istanbul’s Prince Islands, with most of its destructive power focused on the city of 16 million people.

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