Health
How highly contagious are the new coronavirus variants?
British researchers show that the new SARS-CoV-2 mutant, also known as R0, has a transmission advantage of 0.4-0.7 points higher regeneration number, also known as R0, compared to the early strain, which first appeared in the southern United Kingdom. discovered.
This variant, called 202012/01, has “substantial infectious benefits”. That is, according to an interdisciplinary team based at Imperial College London (ICL), its reproduction numbers can vary from 1.4 to 1.8. Published their findings On the school website.
A team led by ICL’s Erik Volz, PhD found a “large, statistically significant imbalance” in areas where variant incidence increased and non-variant incidence decreased. This shows the change in R0.
Volz et al. Also pointed out that the proportion of individuals under the age of 20 was high among the reported mutant and non-mutant cases, which we call “change in age composition.”They have a variant R0 40% -80% higher than wild-type virus..
Regarding the situation in the United States, a previous survey showed that seasonal flu Median number of reproductions The median number of recalls of the 1918 influenza epidemic was 1.80, but it was 1.28.
This variant has already traveled across the pond, with a Colorado man First documented case in the United States There were reports of variants in other states during the holidays last week, Including California And Florida..
CDC officials explained the variant to reporters on Wednesday, It seems unlikely to affect the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccineHowever, certain treatments, such as convalescent plasma, may be less effective. The agency states that more data on variants is expected soon.
In a preliminary report from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases in the United Kingdom on December 23, the initially estimated infection rate could be at least 56% and up to 70% higher.they The survey results have been updated On December 31, we noted that the frequency of variants “significantly increased in all regions of England”, with a frequency of more than 50% in all regions of the National Health System.
The Imperial College Group investigated both epidemiological and genetic data, including the entire 1,904 genomes of October and December 5, with a genetic background of 48,128 genomes collected over the same period. In particular, they found a “high correlation” between S gene targeting disorder (SGTF) and mutant frequency during the COVID-19 PCR test. In short, S gene targeting disorders may act as biomarkers for detecting mutants within the community.
“In almost every region, there is a very clear visual link between SGTF frequency and epidemic growth … this is enhanced by an empirical assessment of region-specific weekly growth factors. It has been. [variant] And non[variant] “Case number”, Volz et al. Wrote.
They noted that even after adjusting for some confounding factors, the “small but important” shift to individuals under the age of 20 was more affected by the variant. This can be due to a variety of factors, including an overall increase in the infectivity of the variant, increased susceptibility in young people, and increased symptoms of the variant.
While further research is needed, the group warned that increased infectious mutants indicate that increased public health measures may be needed to contain the virus.
“Social distance measures need to be stricter than they would otherwise be. Of particular concern is the ability to maintain control of transmission while allowing reopening of schools,” the group wrote. I will.
However, there are signs that the mutant resists vaccine-mediated immunity, or is more deadly, unless the hospital increases the burden on the case and makes it impossible to provide a high level of care to all patients. There is none.
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