Health
COVID-19 cases declining in most of Canada, new modeling shows
Ottawa-According to a new federal pandemic modeling, the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be declining across Canada, but some regions are fighting the latest resurgence of the virus.
According to Dr. Theresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer, Canada’s third wave appears to be declining and the number of new cases is projected to continue declining, but it will ease public health restrictions. There is no time yet.
“In the last month, things have improved,” said Tam. “With our efforts, we are heading for a much better summer if we can successfully overcome the peak of the third wave nationwide and maintain the course.”
The latest national status of the pandemic’s current status and future trajectory shows a reduction in new cases, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths compared to where the country was a month ago.
However, in Manitoba, these major viral indicators are still skyrocketing, modeling shows, and further intervention is needed to begin to see the curve flatten in that state.
The average number of cases in Canada is currently less than half of the peak of the third wave in mid-April, with less than 3,400 cases reported daily over the past seven days.
Early signs are that the combination of restrictions across Canada and increased vaccination numbers has proven to be “very effective” in limiting the number of new cases recorded.
Tam said Friday, when demographics reached 60% vaccination, the hospitalization rate for Canadians aged 60-79 began to decline, and when 40% of demographics were vaccinated, Canada aged 40-59. He said the hospitalization rate for people began to decline.
A big caveat with the latest modeling can occur if spreads increase as a result of a long weekend in May, or if some states, such as Quebec and Alberta, move quickly to ease restrictions. It’s something we haven’t considered yet.
Based on short-term projections, Canada is still on a “low” but still “steady” trajectory for new cases and mortality, reaching a total of 1,387,210 to 1,426,400 cases by June 10, from 25,590 by that time. It is estimated to reach 26,310 deaths.
the current Last month’s modeling update, Data showed that Canada was still in the midst of a strong resurgence of COVID-19 infection, but there were some first signs that stronger public health restrictions were beginning to work.
Currently, Canada’s Public Health Agency’s top executives say the pandemic appears to be curtailed, but further progress is needed on vaccination before the restrictions are relaxed. Otherwise, the country could face a fourth wave.
“If the measures are relaxed and the number of direct contacts across the community increases, it could be revived,” said Tam.
To date, vaccination rates have been high, with more than 22 million vaccinations, with at least one vaccination in 62% of eligible Canadian adults. Similarly, now that most Canadians are offered the first shot, management of the second shot is beginning to accelerate.
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