As the second wave of Covid-19 subsided, several Indian states began preparing for the third wave, with a particular focus on protecting children.
For example Uttar Pradesh The government plans to identify and vaccinate parents of children under the age of 10. State government inaugurated from June 15 Distribute free medicine kits Consists of cough syrup and chewable tablets among children through a network of certified social health activists or ASHA and other frontline workers.
Jharkhand Create a manual It details the third wave treatment plan and child care and estimates that more than 6,000 beds will be needed. From March to April of this year, only 5% of all cases were children under the age of 14, but at least Rs 140,000 in the state said they were at risk for Covid-19 in the third wave. I will.
To KarnatakaThe government has established a task force to create additional pediatric wards and Covid care centers for children throughout the district.
But what is the scientific evidence that these initiatives are based on? What do you know about the third wave, and which demographics it has the most impact on?
Not enough, said scientists and doctors Scroll.in.. “For now, it is very clear that there is no scientific or epidemiological evidence that the third wave will affect children disproportionately,” said epidemiologist Chandra Kantora Hariya.
Report produced by Lancet‘■ The Covid-19 Committee India Task Force reached the same conclusion. So far, most children infected with Covid-19 remain asymptomatic, but mild infections prevail among symptomatic children, the report said.
Scientists said the state was reacting in a “kneeling” way, without evidence. “It’s profitable for the state to set these things,” Lahariya said. “We want to give the impression that the state is procedural and follows the process.”
Third wave and children
How accurately was the theory of the third wave affecting children born?
Scientists didn’t have an answer, Indian era Created on May 12th. Dr. Devi Prasad, Cardiac surgeon and head of the Covid-19 Task Force in Karnataka to prepare for the third wave.
In an editorial, Shetty urged parents to vaccinate parents quickly, as the vaccine is only allowed for people over the age of 18, claiming that the third wave “is likely to mainly attack children.” Did.
“During the first wave, Covid mainly attacked the elderly and the saved youth,” he writes. “The second wave is attacking many young earners. Most adults are already infected or vaccinated, so the third wave can attack children.”
He argued that treating children and babies with the ICU unit was different from treating adults. “Even if only 20% of them are infected and 5% of infected people need a life-saving emergency, they need a pediatric ICU bed of Rs 165,000,” he claimed.
Shetty did not respond Scroll.inA query sent by email regarding the scientific basis of his claim. But a few weeks after his editorial, Indian Pediatric Academy On May 22, we issued a statement that it is very unlikely that the third wave will affect only children. “A very small proportion of infected children can develop moderate to severe illness. If the total number of infected people increases significantly, there can be many children with moderate to severe illness. There is. “
Meanwhile, Jharkhand health officials said the state had prepared a manual just in case of unforeseen circumstances when asked about the scientific evidence to determine the decision.
“Our state is the only state that has taken comprehensive steps,” said Dr. Shantanu Narayen, chairman of a committee empowered to prepare for the third wave. .. “We have prepared this manual in case there is a third wave. Without the third wave, this manual will not be implemented.”
In Uttar Pradesh, the state will begin by distributing 18 Rakı medical kits to children and will distribute a total of 50 Rakı kits, said Dr. DS Negi, director of the state government’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Stated. He said the kit is divided into different age groups for children under the age of 18 and includes paracetamol tablets, cough syrup, multivitamin chewables and drops, oral rehydration solutions tablets, and ivermectin.
Negi did not reveal the state’s costs for this initiative. “We order all these medicines together, so we can’t calculate how much they’re in the kit,” he said.
However, scientists have stated that the distribution of these kits has no preventative value. “In a way, it’s no different from the Baba Ramdef Coronil being distributed,” said Vinita Baru, an immunologist and professor at the Indian Institutes of Science Education in Pune.
“The only useful thing to do is to keep a distance from the mask, not just vaccinations. [for adults]”She said,” Cough syrup and the like are just superficial efforts to show that they are doing something. “
“I’m trying to predict something unpredictable.”
Little information remains about what the third wave of Covid-19 in India looks like.
Dr. SP Calantri, a professor and director of medicine at the Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences in Sevagram, Maharashtra, said:
“The virus doesn’t believe in these mathematical steps,” Kalantri said, dismissing the assumption that the only vulnerable group left in the event of a third wave was children. “The virus is like a deeply drunk person, and he doesn’t know where the next step is, so we’re trying to predict this next step.”
There are no signs of when the third wave will occur, but scientists have stated that the theory that it can primarily affect children depends on multiple variables. “The number of people available to get infected is a major determinant,” said Vineeta Bal.
Jacob John, a professor of community medicine at Christian Medical College in Vellore, said much of it also depends on the degree of artificial immunity, the number of vaccinated adults who can protect children.
“There is no reason to believe that children are likely to be affected,” he said. “The only other thing I can think of is that adults will be vaccinated, and as they are vaccinated, fewer adults will be infected.”
However, Calantry was skeptical of this possibility only as of June 13 due to the pace of national vaccination. 25.3 Chlore dose It has been administered in more than 1 billion countries and the second dose is only Rs 480 million.
“We don’t have enough resources to immunize the population, so I’m not sure if this theory really holds,” Calantri said. “It may take at least a year to be able to cover 80% of the population,” he said. “It all depends on how aggressively we are vaccinated. Even for the government, it’s a challenging task.”
Multiple variables and “no data”
Other scientists have said that the assumption that children will be affected at a higher rate depends on the timing of the third wave. Bal assumed that if the third wave came in the next three months, it would affect children and other unvaccinated adults, given the current vaccination rates.
“If that happens later, if most adults are vaccinated, only children can be affected,” Baru said.
With further warning, she said that next year more adults will be more susceptible to the virus, assuming the third wave is postponed to June or July next year and vaccine-related immunity does not last for more than a year. Stated.
“Therefore, there is no single answer that only children are affected,” she said. “But with national serology data, we can see how much of India’s population is infected and protected. But there is no data.”
There was evidence that their mortality rate was much lower, even if the children were affected. Lancet March. The study analyzed infant mortality in seven countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Italy, Germany, and South Korea.
“Overall, there was no clear evidence of an increasing trend in mortality throughout the period through February 2021, but there were apparent additional deaths in children and adolescents during periods of high community prevalence.” It states.
