It was another bad week for stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extended their decline to six consecutive sessions on Friday, their worst losing streak in more than a year. The Nasdaq fell 2% on Friday as Netflix fell nearly 11% after earnings and Club Nvidia stock fell 10%, entering bear market territory but still up more than 50% in 2024. Since its all-time high of $974 per share, Nvidia has fallen nearly 22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly higher on Friday, thanks to a more than 6% rise in American Express after earnings. The Dow Jones was little changed during the week. Driving this week's trading: concerns about a prolonged rise in interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve and escalating tensions in the Middle East. As the market tried to take a position on Tuesday, Fed Chief Jerome Powell said at an event that he was seeing a “lack of further progress” this year on inflation. This did not surprise us. Jim Cramer said the economy is too strong and the risk of reigniting inflation is too great for the Fed to cut rates in the near future. However, the comments were enough to send shares tumbling at the close. While investors were worried all week about how Israel would respond to the Iranian attack last week, it was understandably difficult for anyone to be too optimistic. The answer came Thursday evening. While ignoring an overnight decline in stock futures Friday morning, the market quickly moved lower about 30 minutes into the session. Perhaps it was a recognition that, as minimal as Israel's retaliation was, and as much as we all want de-escalation, we are now in a new world, in which both nations seem to be increasingly ready to fight directly, rather than through conflict. proxies. This means, at least for now, that there are increased geopolitical risks that investors must factor into valuation multiples or discount rates. We will continue to monitor tensions between Israel and Iran as well as continued fighting in the Israel-Hamas war and Russia's war in Ukraine. Following a much better-than-expected March retail sales report last month, new economic data and six Club share profits will take center stage in the week ahead. Economic Data: The main event for macroeconomic updates will take place at the end of the week, with the release of personal spending and income data for March. In Friday's report we find the PCE Price Index and the even more important PCE Core Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The consensus estimate by FactSet calls for an overall PCE increase of 2.6% year-over-year and a core PCE gain of 2.7%. While we would like to see the inflation rate fall and move closer to the Fed's 2% target, we reiterate that we are not investing based on the likelihood that the central bank will cut rates. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2024 were at six earlier in the year. With a recent rise in inflation, they have fallen to one or perhaps two. While lower rates may favor stock multiples, it is not a sustainable path to higher stock prices over time. However, a strong economy promotes earnings growth, a necessary condition for continued stock price appreciation. Earnings growth means stock prices can continue to rise even if valuation multiples remain stagnant. Simply put, the long-term investor does much better in an environment conducive to earnings growth than in an environment strictly conducive to valuation multiples or lower discount rates. Thursday is the government's first reading on American economic growth in the first quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 2.2%. The report is retrospective, but it will nonetheless provide insight into how the economy has fared through the first three months of 2024. The state of the housing market will also be in focus next week, with sales of new housing in March Tuesday and March. home sales pending Thursday. Neither will move as much in the market as core PCE or even GDP. Still, it is important for investors to monitor housing reports as housing costs remain a major factor in maintaining high inflation. Any sign of a slowdown in house price growth will be very welcomed by investors. Earnings: The latest quarterly reporting season is starting to kick into high gear with six club names set to release their results next week. Danaher releases results before the open bell Tuesday. The state of financing and biotechnology stocks, as well as the state of destocking among the largest customers and demand from China are all elements to monitor. Meta Platforms reports after market close Wednesday. It would be great to do more of the same: continued strong commitment, cost discipline, sustained revenue momentum, and further progress in better monetization of Reels. CEO Mark Zuckerberg's efficiency efforts have boosted shares. This week, Meta announced that its free AI assistant was rolling out across its platforms and using real-time insights from Google and Microsoft's Bing search engines. Any additional comments on the Meta results release or the call about AI and subsequent plans to monetize Messenger and WhatsApp would be welcome. We also want to see Reality Labs' losses reduce. Ford also reports after the close Wednesday. The combination of loss-making, demand-mitigating electric vehicles and high-margin, high-demand hybrid vehicles will be a major high-interest dynamic. We would like to see management become more aggressive in repurchasing shares, which we recently addressed with General Motors' plan to repurchase many shares. Honeywell reported its results before the bell on Thursday. Management's outlook on demand recovery in the company's short-cycle businesses will be key, as uncertainty over timing has dampened the team's outlook. Businesses with shorter cycles tend to have higher margins. Efforts to better streamline the company around CEO Vimal Kapur's vision for the three megatrends of automation, the future of aviation and the energy transition will also be a focus. He has held the top job for almost a year. Microsoft delivers its quarter after closing on Thursday. It all depends on the growth of the Azure cloud and how Microsoft can further monetize its significant investments in artificial intelligence. The team doesn't provide advice until about 20 minutes into the post-results conference call, so knee-jerk reactions to pre-call stocks shouldn't be relied upon. Comments on a rebound in personal computer sales would be welcome, not only because of how it benefits Microsoft, but also as a reading of the Best Buy club name trends. Alphabet also reports after the bell on Thursday. Last time, Google's parent company missed ad sales, and the previous quarter, cloud results fell short. Can the company achieve both this time, is the question? We would like to see Alphabet adopt a Meta-like approach to efficiency. We're also interested in hearing more about Alphabet's efforts to monetize AI and any feedback on new products revealed at Cloud Next earlier this month. Monday, April 22 Before the bell: Verizon Communications (VZ), Albertsons Companies (ACI) After the bell: Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Nucor (NUE), SAP (SAP), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) Tuesday, April 23 10 a.m. ET: New Home Sales Before the Bell: Danaher (DHR), General Motors (GM), United Parcel Service (UPS), General Electric (GE), PepsiCo (PEP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX ), Spotify Technology (SPOT), RTX Corporation (RTX), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Halliburton (HAL), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Philip Morris International (PM), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Quest Diagnostics (DGX ), PulteGroup (PHM), Fiserv (FI) After the bell: Tesla (TSLA), Visa (V), Texas Instruments (TXN), Baker Hughes (BKR), Seagate Technology (STX), Mattel (MAT), Veralto Corporation (VLTO) Wednesday, April 24, 8:30 a.m. ET: Durable Orders Before the Bell: Boeing (BA), AT&T (T), Humana (HUM), General Dynamics (GD), Boston Scientific (BSX), Hilton (HLT), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Biogen (BIIB), Masco (MAS), Otis Worldwide (OTIS) After the bell: Meta Platforms (META), Ford (F), IBM (IBM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), ServiceNow (NOW) , Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Lam Research (LRCX), Whirlpool (WHR), WM (WM) Thursday, April 25 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial Unemployment Claims 8:30 a.m. ET: Gross Domestic Price 10 a.m. ET: Home Sales in wait Before the bell: Honeywell International (HON), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), American Airlines (AAL), Altria Group (MO), Newmont Mining (NEM), Caterpillar (CAT), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), AstraZeneca (AZN), Mobileye Global (MBLY), Northrop Grumman (NOC), parent company of CNBC Comcast (CMCSA), Merck (MRK), Dow Inc. (DOW), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Carrier Global (CARR), Union Pacific (UNP), International Paper (IP) After the bell: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Intel (INTC), Snap (SNAP), Roku (ROKU), Western Digital (WDC) ), DexCom (DXCM), T-Mobile US (TMUS), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Skechers (SKX), Edwards Lifesciences (EW) Friday, April 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Spending and Income 8:30 a.m. ET: Index Core PCE Prices Before the Bell: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Charter Communications (CHTR), AutoNation (AN), Newell Brands (NWL) (See here for a complete list of Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust stocks.) As a subscriber to CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after a trade alert is sent before buying or selling a stock in his charity's portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after the trade alert is issued before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTMENT CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, AS WELL AS OUR DISCLAIMER. NO OBLIGATION OR FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO SPECIFIC RESULTS OR PROFITS ARE GUARANTEED.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the afternoon of April 9, 2024 in New York.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
It was another bad week for stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq extended their decline to six consecutive sessions on Friday, their worst losing streak in more than a year.
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