Harris and Trump Are Tied, Poll Finds. Here's Why Strategists Think That's a Good Thing for Democrats

Nearly 87 percent of Americans believe President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign was the right decision, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. That view cuts across ideological, generational and partisan divides, a powerful note of unity amid a din of national division.

According to a majority (41%) of Americans, Biden's decision increases the Democrats' chances of winning the election. Among those who believe this moment will be a turning point, there are 65% of Democrats, 38% of independents and 21% of Republicans.

At the same time, 24% of respondents said Biden's decision to withdraw hurts Democrats' chances of winning in November, while 34% said his decision would make no difference, including 42% of Republicans.

If you look at the policies of the last four years, you can see that he hasn't lost his pace, said Democratic strategist Adam Parkhomenko. But he's not as fast as he used to be. Four years is a long time.

Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News

Nearly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated to lead their party in November. Less than a quarter said Democrats should find someone else to lead the party. The poll was conducted Monday as support, campaign donations and pledged delegates began to pile up for Harris to replace Biden.

If the election were held today, 46% of voters would support Trump, while 45% of registered American voters would support Harris, well within the margin of error. Compared to the previous PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, conducted this month before Biden dropped out of the race, support for Trump and Harris has dropped a few points each, while the percentage of undecided voters has increased by 8 points.

Graphic by Jenna Cohen/PBS News

The question is whether Harris has the ability to attract voters beyond the Democratic Party and overcome the public’s lackluster impressions of Biden’s tenure. Right now, she’s underrated relative to the general perception, according to this poll, even though a significant number of them aren’t sure what to think of her.

In the latest poll, 44% of American adults said they had an unfavorable opinion of Kamala Harris. At the same time, 40% said they had a favorable opinion of her, while 15% said they were unsure, including 19% of independents.

Biden’s departure is far from the only shock to the American political system in the past two weeks. Former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania two days before the Republican National Convention, where he recounted his harrowing experience of being shot and paid tribute to other victims.

As the Republican Party comes off a spectacular and unifying Republican National Convention and Democrats experience the euphoria of no longer having Biden in the running, Republican strategist Whit Ayres said it appears the two candidates have neutralized each other. There is no upside for Trump or Harris.

“We're back to an even race,” Ayres said.

Biden's decision to quit the 2024 race and his legacy

In the 24 hours after Biden withdrew and Harris endorsed her, the Democratic Party raised more than $81 million, with a majority of donors saying it was their first time donating this election cycle, according to an email from Harris’ campaign. On Monday, the Associated Press reported from its own unofficial poll that Harris had won more than 1,976 delegates, enough to become the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee (though she has yet to achieve that distinction).

VIDEO: Harris solidifies Democratic support, is frontrunner to replace Biden on ticket

“I am grateful to President Biden and all members of the Democratic Party who have already placed their trust in me, and I look forward to taking our cause directly to the American people,” Harris said in a statement released Monday.

About 1 in 3 Americans (35%) say Biden’s departure made them more likely to vote in November than before he left the race. Among those who felt this newfound enthusiasm were 46% of Democrats, 35% of Republicans, and 28% of independents. Overall, a majority of Americans say Biden’s decision did not affect their likelihood to vote, which may reflect in part the urgency many voters already felt.

In a letter sent Sunday, Biden expressed the great honor he had felt serving in the White House but said he believed it was in the best interest of my party and the country for me to step aside and focus on the remainder of his presidency.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe Biden should finish his presidential term, including most Democrats and independents. Republicans are split on whether Biden should resign before next January.

When considering how history might remember Biden's time in the Oval Office, 13% of American adults consider him one of the best presidents in the country's history, while 37% say he is average or above.

At the other end of the spectrum, 31% of Americans said Biden was one of the worst presidents in history. By comparison, 47% of Americans thought the same of Trump in January 2021, and 17% of Americans thought the same of former President Barack Obama in December 2016, as he was preparing to leave office.

Biden will address the nation on Wednesday and is expected to explain why he chose this moment to end his re-election campaign.

“When Biden speaks tomorrow about his decision, I really think it will be a moment for the country to hear from his heart how difficult, how heartfelt but also probably, ultimately, how easy this decision was, because he cares about his country, his party and his legacy,” Parkhomenko said.

Trump vs Harris

Americans have a more settled opinion of Trump than of Harris. Eight percent of Americans said they didn’t know what they thought of him, compared to 15 percent for Harris. Forty-nine percent said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 43 percent said they had a favorable opinion of him.

For Republicans to control the narrative, Ayres said, they need to make it clear that the economy was better when Donald Trump was president than when Democrats were in power, adding that this is their strongest argument, particularly to nonwhite respondents.

“Harris still has a lot of room to grow, and Trump has reached his ceiling.”

Harris's unfamiliarity could prove an asset to the campaign. In the coming days, she is likely to benefit from waves of exciting news, Parkhomenko said, including the Democratic National Convention and the selection of her own vice president.

For Harris to continue to make progress, Democrats must stay focused and build on the unity forged in recent days, Parkhomenko said. They must also find a balance between debunking the Trump campaign and emphasizing what we’re going to do over the next four years. It’s not just about what we did during the Biden administration.

Harris still has plenty of room to grow, and Trump has hit his ceiling, said Democratic strategist Tory Gavito. Trump is stagnating at 46 percent, and he should be surging right now.

The only thing that has emerged with certainty from these past two weeks, which have felt like a political year, is that Americans are more interested and engaged in the upcoming presidential election than they have been in months.

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on July 22 among 1,309 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points, 1,117 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, 846 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in the November general election with a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points and 515 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents with a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points.

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