The new Trump era once again tests military relations between Trkiye and the United States

During the era of former US President Joe Biden, Turkey-US relations were marked by a cautious but constructive approach, largely influenced through diplomacy. Both countries have managed to avoid major crises, demonstrating their mutual interest in maintaining a functional relationship. A key example of this evolving dynamic is Trkiyes' request to purchase F-16 fighter jets, which reflects the strategic interests of both countries. The Biden administration's eventual approval of this agreement represents a positive step toward restoring trust and strengthening military cooperation.

The deal includes the sale of 40 new F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and retrofit kits for 79 existing aircraft, worth approximately $23 billion (estimated costs shown indicate maximum amount; market values contracts are generally lower). This agreement not only strengthens Trkiyes' air capabilities, but also strengthens NATO interoperability, as highlighted by US officials who called it an important investment in security partnerships. The successful completion of this sale follows Trkiye's ratification of Sweden's membership in NATO, an essential condition for the United States to give the green light to the transaction.

Trkiye's active role in mediating conflicts, such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, shows its importance as a regional stabilizer and partner in addressing global challenges. The country has sought to modernize its aging Air Force fleet, which includes more than 200 older F-16 models. Acquiring new F-16s is crucial for Trkiye as it bridges the gap while transitioning to domestically produced fifth-generation fighter jets, such as the KAAN, which made its maiden flight earlier this year.

Unresolved cases

Although important issues such as Turkey's ties to Russia and its military actions in Syria remain unresolved, the overall trajectory of Turkey-US relations suggests potential for collaboration based on shared interests. This relationship embodies a balance between strategic cooperation and ideological differences, highlighting the importance of Trkiyes as a key ally in the region.

The dynamics of future relations between Turkey and the United States will largely depend on US President-elect Donald Trump's commitment to dialogue with President Recep Tayyip Erdoan. This commitment will likely be shaped by the divergent views within the new foreign policy team, particularly from influential figures such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, who maintain hardline stances toward Trkiye. Their skepticism, rooted in national security concerns and defense priorities, could hamper efforts to cultivate a cooperative bilateral relationship.

For example, Rubio's opposition to U.S. arms sales to Trkiye because of his “human rights record” and “military actions in Syria” illustrates the resistance the president-elect might encounter from from key figures. Likewise, Waltz's emphasis on combating perceived threats from Turkey's ties with Russia could complicate diplomatic overtures.

Ultimately, the interplay between Trump's willingness to pursue diplomatic engagement and the refusal of these key figures will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Trkiye-US relations in the years to come. A balanced approach that meets the strategic interests of both countries while easing existing tensions could foster a more stable partnership in the future.

The Trump administration has acknowledged that US policy in Syria, particularly its support for the PKK's Syrian wing, the YPG, poses a major obstacle to Turkish-US relations. A move towards actions more favorable to Trkiye could mark the opening of a new chapter in bilateral relations. For example, lifting sanctions imposed by the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) could strengthen military cooperation and trade, thereby promoting mutual interests.

The previous Trump administration showed a willingness to engage directly with Erdoan, which could facilitate dialogue on controversial issues. Erdoan has played a unique mediating role in the current crisis in Ukraine, skillfully balancing relations with Ukraine and Russia, with which Trkiye maintains strong military and trade ties. This strategic positioning has implications for the relationship between the United States and Turkiye, suggesting the potential for deeper cooperation in achieving common security goals.

Trump should notably support Trkiyes' mediation efforts in Ukraine. Former US Ambassador James Jeffrey recently said: “Trkiye was a pioneering country in bringing Ukrainians and Russians to the table.” He added: “Having worked closely with President Trump, I know that he trusts and likes President Erdoan and would likely look to Ankara for support in moving the negotiations forward.” This confidence in Trkiyes' diplomatic capacity highlights the possibility of the two nations aligning more closely in pursuit of regional stability.

For example, Rubio, who has often criticized Trkiye, recently praised the effectiveness of Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drones in Ukraine, acknowledging their impact in disrupting Russian supply lines.

In this new era of relations with NATO, Trkiye's role as a key player is underlined by its strategic location and military assets. The ongoing modernization of its air force with U.S.-made F-16s will strengthen NATO's southern flank against potential threats from adversaries like Russia, while strengthening alliances within the transatlantic community.

As the Trump administration returns to power, the future of Trkiye's F-35 procurement process remains uncertain. Historically, the United States excluded Trkiye from the F-35 program in 2019 due to Ankara's acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, which Washington said posed a security risk to the fighter jet advance.

Despite Trkiye's significant investment of approximately $1.4 billion in this program, its withdrawal left a void in its military modernization efforts. Trump has previously expressed frustration with this situation, stating that Trkiye was unfairly penalized for being forced to purchase the S-400 system due to the lack of viable alternatives from the United States. He acknowledged that this impasse was a complex issue and hinted at a problem. desire to resolve it.

In recent statements, Erdoan has reiterated Trkiye's interest in acquiring advanced fighter jets, emphasizing that while the focus is currently on securing the F-16s, the door remains open for discussions on F-35. Trkiye wants to recoup its investment in the F-35 program and hopes that improved relations under the Trump administration could facilitate that process.

A pivotal crossroads

As Trump returns to power with the opportunity to reshape relations between Turkey and the United States, particularly regarding defense collaboration within NATO, the two countries find themselves at a crucial crossroads . The potential for a renewed partnership depends on accommodating mutual interests while overcoming existing tensions. Trkiye's strategic position and military capabilities are vital not only to its own national security, but also to the broader stability of the region and NATO's collective defense posture.

Trump's nomination of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense could have positive implications for U.S.-Turkey relations, particularly in the defense sector. Hegseth, known for his strong support for military initiatives and conservative values, could foster a more collaborative environment between the two nations, especially given Trkiye's strategic position within NATO.

Hegseth's military experience and advocacy for robust defense policies could lead to increased support for Trkiye's continued efforts to modernize its military and actively participate in NATO missions. As Trkiye faces complex geopolitical challenges, including its relationship with Russia and its involvement in conflicts like that in Syria, U.S. defense leadership could facilitate more effective collaboration on common security interests.

As former US President Ronald Reagan once said: “The future does not belong to the faint-hearted; it belongs to the brave. » This sentiment underscores the importance of bold diplomatic engagement and cooperation between Trkiye and the United States. By adopting a forward-looking approach that prioritizes dialogue and common strategic goals, both countries can work towards a more stable and prosperous future, thereby strengthening their role on the global stage. while strengthening their long-standing alliance.

The Sabah Daily News Bulletin

Keep up to date with what's happening in Türkiye, its region and the world.

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