Politics
UK election strategists call out inaccurate election surveys – POLITICO
Some industry professionals agree that political polling is flawed and needs a reality check. In this month's US presidential election, for example, pollsters underestimated the pro-Donald Trump vote, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
The forthcoming book describes widespread unease and deep anger within former Conservative leader Rishi Sunak's inner circle at the way polls dominated the national debate ahead of the UK election.
Make a mistake
On the one hand, the polls were significantly wrong in terms of vote share, an error masked by the fact that the overall result, a Labor victory, was clear. Instead of a 20-point lead for Labor over the Conservatives, as polls had consistently suggested, the election yielded a margin of victory half that, with Labor taking 34 percent of the vote to 24 percent. for conservatives.
Levido, the Australian strategist who ran the Conservatives' campaign this year and Boris Johnson's successful campaign in 2019, said it was time for reform.
I'm not saying we wouldn't have lost, Levido said in an interview published in the book. But poll inaccuracy and media coverage increasingly play an outsized role in election campaigns. Polls frankly receive far too much attention compared to a real political debate, and this significantly influences voter behavior.
I'm not sure it's realistic to ban voting for the entire campaign period, but I certainly think that some sort of blackout over the last few weeks, as some other countries have done, would be healthy. Other countries also banned television advertising during the last two or three days of the campaign.
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