China created the rival it rebels against

China and Japan were not destined to become enemies in the 21st century. Mao Zedong once joked with a Japanese visitor that without the Imperial Army, the Chinese people would not have rallied around the Communist Party and therefore there was “no reason to be sorry.” Deng Xiaoping saw Japan as a model for his flagship “Four Modernizations” project and brought in Japanese experts to advise him on everything from forestry to steelmaking.

But more recently, Japan-bashing has become the core of vehement Chinese nationalism, with disastrous consequences. Indeed, Beijing’s relentless demonization, economic coercion and regular harassment of Japan, its people and its institutions have created the monster it fears most.

During his recent summit with US President Donald Trump, Chinese leader Xi Jinping insulted against Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and the threat of Japanese “remilitarization,” according to the Financial Times, taking the American side by surprise with its vehemence. Takaichi, who won an early election thanks in large part to her voters rallying around her in the face of crude threats from Beijing – a Chinese diplomat threatened to “cut off her dirty neck” – is leading an ambitious military rearmament program while shedding the last vestiges of her country’s post-war pacifist identity.

As US allies begin to question Washington’s reliability and sustainability, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth added to his doubts last week in a speech to his Asian allies in Singapore, saying that I forgot to mention Taiwanthe most dangerous regional hotspot, and has trodden lightly on other Chinese sensitivities – Japan is acting with a new swagger.

Tokyo has advanced technology, a strong industrial base, and a powerful navy. Although Japan is constitutionally obligated to project force, it operates the functional equivalent of aircraft carriers equipped with U.S.-made vertical takeoff aircraft. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, one of the country’s largest defense contractors, is building a hypersonic glider vehicle.

The deadly capability fueled Beijing’s concern after Takaichi said last year that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan that would trigger military intervention.

Few countries in Asia adhere to China’s narrative which presents Japan as a “neo-militarist” power, unashamed and unrepentant towards its wartime past. In Southeast Asia, Japan is the most reliable world powerwell ahead of the EU and US, and China far behind, according to the latest survey by a Singapore-based think tank. The Philippines recently hosted Japanese combat troops in a military exercise, the first such deployment since World War II. Indonesia and Japan have forged a quasi-alliance. And Takaichi amazed the students in Vietnam with a speech which attacked China by calling for an international order based on “freedom, openness, diversity, inclusion and the rule of law”.

Rather, smaller nations see China’s military buildup – the largest of any country in peacetime – as a threat to regional security, not Japan’s. And they are lining up to strike arms deals with Tokyo. Australia has placed an order for a fleet of 11 Japanese stealth warships. The Philippines receives six second-hand Japanese destroyer escorts, armed with anti-submarine and anti-ship missiles, torpedoes and naval guns. Further afield, Japan is working with the United Kingdom and Italy to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter.

Takaichi is just getting started. She has public opinion behind her: in a country where anti-war sentiment is widespread, Chinese pressure has led to a more hawkish consensus. Japan’s defense spending is on track to double to 2% of GDP in a few years, which could make it the world’s third-largest military budget, after the United States and China.

Mao saw Japan in a very different light. After all, his People’s Liberation Army troops helped defeat the Japanese invaders; after the war, he was keen to promote a narrative of victory to his own country and the world.

In Beijing’s contemporary discourse on Japan, China plays the role of victim. And in one sense that may be true: the real threat to Xi’s China is “Japanization” — a deep economic malaise, the legacy of a real estate collapse that has crippled investment, curbed spending and driven down prices.

Takaichi’s Japan is now heading in the opposite direction, with Xi’s smear campaign a vital stimulus.