PM Modi’s new arc of confidence will keep the Indo-Pacific together

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is traveling to Jakarta, Auckland and Melbourne, undertaking a series of visits that could define New Delhi’s approach to the Indo-Pacific in the decades to come. A bold and daring redrawing of the map of this vast maritime region is underway. This effort will seek to restore the autonomy of the powers that reside here and refocus the region’s history on good growth and inclusive development, away from the contestational whims of the extractive superpowers. India envisions a new geometry of collaboration, one that does not depend on the axioms laid out in Washington or Beijing, but is crafted by those who live here and therefore have the most to gain or lose.

The first step, and the keystone of any plan for the Indo-Pacific, is Indonesia. The world’s third most populous nation is the archetypal Indo-Pacific power. In fact, this is the nation for which the term could almost have been invented. The archipelago straddles all the crucial trade routes between the two oceans, has abundant natural resources and, like India, is a civilizational state long committed to a “free and active” foreign policy that guarantees its autonomy.

The world’s third most populous nation is the archetypal Indo-Pacific power. In fact, this is the nation for which the term could almost have been invented.

It is the relationship between India and Indonesia that will determine the course for the wider maritime region. And what we often forget is that this partnership has already multiplied. Objectively, Jakarta is one of New Delhi’s most important partners. Looking only at goods, trade between the two countries, at just under $30 billion a year, is significant. It has overtaken India-UK trade and is neck and neck with Indo-German trade. Trade in goods will only grow, boosted by the improved free trade agreement between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as will services, which are currently underrepresented and underestimated. With a focus on maritime logistics, technology and financial services, as well as new supply chains, this partnership will form the basis of a free and open trade architecture in the region.

And it will also be necessary for Prime Minister Modi and President Prabowo Subianto to advance their relations if the Indo-Pacific is to create a truly indigenous and independent security framework. These two maritime powers are the only ones with the scale, capacity and presence to manage the region’s most vital choke points. Together, they are the only powers able to become net security providers of this ocean, not by invitation from Washington or out of deference to Beijing, but because the sea lanes belong to them in the first place.

Australia, for its part, is India’s privileged partner. A new economic partnership, the Australia-India Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement (ECTA), was negotiated in 2022, signaling New Delhi’s new vision for trade. But it also built confidence, a much rarer commodity. This trust can serve as a foundation for the next stage of this relationship. This would require deeper integration: our financial services, nuclear energy and resource processing sectors need to be integrated. These are areas in which we both have great capabilities and our research focuses on autonomy, scale and new technologies. The strategic objective, once the habit of cooperation is established, must be defense co-production, where both could serve as reliable catalysts of broader regional and global security.

A new economic partnership, the Australia-India Economic and Trade Cooperation Agreement (ECTA), was negotiated in 2022, signaling New Delhi’s new vision for trade. But it also built confidence, a much rarer commodity.

New Zealand is a crucial key to the puzzle, and not just because of its own strengths. Innovation Island is home to advanced manufacturing capabilities, deep space and technology companies and agri-food innovations, making it a critical part of India’s innovation sectors, food security imperative and India’s farm income strategy. With the fourth largest exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the blue economy as a whole is a natural area for partnership with Aotearoa.

Alongside Canberra, Wellington will provide another crucial bridge to the Five Eyes security intelligence ecosystem. This adds extra resilience to a still new relationship.

Finally, together, India and the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) can become the delivery mechanism for development across the South Pacific and neighboring ASEAN regions. They will provide the financing, digital and physical infrastructure and human capital that the region sorely needs, as well as a credible alternative to exploitative or unreliable partners. India is, after all, the greatest theater of discovery of development solutions for the planet; Once this innovative energy is combined with the capital and Pacific position of the ANZAC nations, it provides a path to development that does not force small nations into perverse debt or lease a naval base to supposed benefactors.

Modi’s new arc of confidence will hold the Indo-Pacific together in these turbulent times. With India at its center, trace the arc eastward from India through Indonesia, Australia, and New Zealand. Then head it west, through the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf, to the east coast of Africa.

This is the real story of the tour ahead: the geographic center of the Indo-Pacific resetting and redrawing an emerging order so that those who share this oceanic domain write the rules instead of simply inheriting them.

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This comment was originally published in Indian Express.

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