Delhi may warn of massive damage from imminent earthquake in the foothills of the Himalayas, experts warn

The tremors felt by people in Delhi-NCR (National Capital District) on Wednesday, when a minor earthquake measuring 3.2 on the Richter scale hit Noida, was the third of its kind in just the past five days.

The National Seismology Center recorded about 10 such earthquakes in and around NCR Delhi between April 12 and May 29 in 2020.

The increased frequency of earthquakes has caused residents anxiety, as social media messages have toured that there may be “one big one around”.

CB said an earthquake was imminent on the foothills of the Himalayas. Rajendran, a professor at the Geodynamic Unit at the Jawaharlal Nehru Center for Advanced Scientific Research in Bengaluru, but added that one cannot be sure exactly when it happened.

A study led by Rajendran in 2018 found that an earthquake occurred sometime between 1315 and 1440 AD that decompressed about 600 km, which is the length of the seismic gap that extends from Bhattabur in India beyond Mohanna Khula in Nepal in the central Himalayas.

The seismic gap is part of an active error that has experienced little or no seismic activity for a long time.

The study found that the region remained seismic quiet for 600-700 years, which led to “massive accumulation of earthquake strain”, which could lead to an earthquake measuring 8.5 or more at any time in the near future.

This could affect the foothills of the Himalayas and the northern plains of India, including cities such as Delhi, the study said.

In an email interview with HuffPost India, Rajendran explained why there have been slight earthquakes in Delhi in the past few weeks, the impact of the massive earthquake in Delhi and the steps that the government needs to take to prepare for this.

Excerpts from the interview:

Delhi has experienced several minor earthquakes in the past few months. Can you explain why this happened?

Delhi bears many errors associated with several hundred deeper transversal linear geological structures that are 1 km long perpendicular to the Himalayan axis. Some of the main structures are called Delhi-Haridwar Ridge, Delhi-Sargodha Ridge and the Frontier Mistake. There are many active errors associated with these structures. Since they are located near the tectonic system in the Himalayas, rocks accumulate within the fault areas periodically due to the continuous movement north of the Indian continental plate under the Himalayas. The stresses are released differently along these defects that produce earthquakes of different sizes (moderate and smaller sizes). The May 29 earthquake was in Rohtak, near Delhi, with a magnitude of 4.6.

Delhi and its vicinity have experienced similar earthquakes in the past. In 1960, Delhi was rocked by a magnitude of 4.8, greater than on May 29. About 75% of the buildings were around the 1960 shock center – between Kant was North. Gurgaon – Minor cracks and damage were developed in Red Fort and Rashtrapati Bhavan. About 100 people were injured by debris and debris. Errors around Delhi can generate earthquakes of up to 6.5 degrees. In 1720, another devastating earthquake occurred in Delhi. In 1966, a 5.2 magnitude earthquake near Moradabad.

Some geologists have said that Delhi could see a major earthquake in the future. Is that correct?

A major earthquake is expected from the foothills of the Central Himalayas. Studies show that this part of the Himalayas has not experienced a major earthquake (greater than 8 degrees) for hundreds of years unlike other parts of the Himalayas. The science tells us that the pressure from the northern movement of the Indian plate has accumulated greatly there and should be triggered by a major earthquake or a series of earthquakes. We can only say it is imminent, but we cannot say when that will happen.

Specific parts of Delhi are more vulnerable to earthquakes. If so why?

The areas around the Yamuna River are more vulnerable because high soil thickness amplifies seismic energy and creates more damage to buildings. For this matter, the entire alluvial plain along the Ganga River is highly vulnerable to a major earthquake from the Himalayas.

My study showed that the foothills of the Himalayas are at imminent risk of an earthquake. What parts of India have you found affected by? How long can that happen?

Parts of Delhi, Haryana and UP will be affected, unlike parts of the central Himalayas (Garhwal and Kumaun parts). It can happen at any time.

What impact can it have on Delhi? Is Delhi a city ready to face a massive earthquake? If not, why?

Delhi is located in the “fourth earthquake zone” or in an area with high seismic risk. Delhi will be hit hard. Architects noted that 95% of buildings in Delhi do not follow the security code. The population of Delhi has increased many times during the past seventy years. If an earthquake similar to 1720 repeats, the loss of life and property may be enormous in Delhi today. The destruction of property and lives will be enormous by a massive earthquake from the middle of the Himalayas.

What steps does the government need to take immediately for Delhi to cope with a massive earthquake?

Earthquake seismic movements of the earthquake will have varying properties depending on soil and site conditions. The exact area conducted by the Ministry of Earth Sciences in Delhi tells us that it can be broadly divided into different land units with identical potential hazards.

Most of the area along the Yamuna flood plains and parts of north Delhi and southwestern Delhi forms regions with higher seismic hazards while the central and edge part forms less hazardous areas than the rest of Delhi.

Most of the earthquake lost lives are due to the collapse of buildings that are not earthquake-proof. So, the answer is simple – strictly follow the available building rules and the right building practices, but the rules are always ignored and the right building practices.

Also, the government should take steps to strengthen historical monuments in and around Delhi (such as the Taj Mahal). In 1803, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake destroyed the Beacon Pole.

Are there countries that have successfully prepared themselves to deal with earthquakes from which India can learn?

The United States, Japan and Taiwan. They are better prepared in terms of early warning systems and high-quality data collection through increased funding for earthquake research and also more skilled in using engineering principles in earthquake-prone regions to build earthquake-resistant structures, as scientists have suggested.

Editor’s note: This title has been changed to more accurately reflect the expert’s views.

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