New York may face a ‘political earthquake’ coming Election Day

With Election Day approaching, what can we expect to see once the polls close? Momentum during the midterm elections has moved behind the Republican candidates, said Grant Riehr, director of the Campbell Institute of Public Affairs at Syracuse University.

“I’m reasonably certain to say that the Republicans will take back the House,” Reher said. “I even think they have a real chance of getting the Senate back as well, and then that creates really deep complications for how the Democrats approach the presidential election in 2024.”

The race to watch closely is New York’s 22nd congressional district, Reher said, saying that this upstate New York area is often considered the nation’s leader. He said on paper that Democratic candidate Francis Connoll should win, but some polls show Republican Brandon Williams as the preferred candidate.

“If you look at the way the district has been redrawn, if you look at the spending, if you look at the ideological make-up of the candidates and how they fit into the district, it’s really surprising on paper. [Williams] “If he keeps going and keeps that lead he’s got and wins, whether it’s by a small margin or by a more comfortable margin,” Rehr said. “I think that would be a really big story for this region and for the country.”

Another race that Reeher said should be watched is the governor’s race as polls show it is narrowing. He said that if you looked at the race six months ago, you’d think it would be very difficult for Governor Cathy Hochhol to lose to an opponent like Representative Lee Zelden (R Long Island).

“If Lee Zelden beat Kathy Hochhol, it would basically be a political earthquake in New York state,” Rehr said. “This would change the whole picture of how the country’s policies are going in the next four years.”

A mid-October poll from Quinnipiac University showed Hochul ahead of Zeldin by 50-46 percent.

“I think the Republicans will outperform their expectations at least a few weeks ago,” Reher said.

Reher said Democrats have tried to push messages like voting for a Democrat is a vote for democracy as well as social policies like access to abortion, but that these issues may not have enough impact on independent voters.

“It looks like it might rather be the economy and concerns about the economy and concerns that the Democrats are the better party to run the economy, something that might resonate more with these independents. And if that’s the case, I think the Democrats might be in for a long night of election night.”

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