Echo of the Financial Earthquake in Pre-Market – March 13, 2023

Monday, March 13, 2023

Consider this something not much anticipated early on: a bit of a jog in some regional banks reviving trading activity before our market enters to start a new week. Even as President Biden stepped up to announce US government support for customer deposits in the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Besides, Signature Bank (SBNY Quick QuoteSBNY – Free Report) deposits are also supported; Trading in this stock has been suspended this morning.

The lack of development of emerging technology — including IPOs — has hurt the prospects for the venture capital muses that have made up much of SVB’s business. This, along with administrative issues that are very obvious even if they remain unclear for the time being. But fear of contagion has now infected other regional banks in the Silicon Valley/NoCal area: Pacwest (PACW Quick QuotePACW – Free Report) is currently down -64% and Western Alliance (WAL Quick QuoteWAL – Free Report) is -68%.

The big banks haven’t been hurt yet: JPMorgan (JPM Quick QuoteJPM – Free Report) is slightly red in this ex market, -1%, while Goldman Sachs (GS Quick QuoteGS – Free Report) is -2%. This is certainly subject to change as more facts emerge. And up until this point, Biden has avoided calling this a “bank bailout,” though depending on what comes next, he may have his hands tied on the matter. What appeared on Friday morning as an issue primarily associated with the senior officers of the SVB now appears to be something with a few real hooks in it.

Is this the “breaking thing” that some analysts have warned will happen with the Fed raising interest rates aggressively over the past year? Given the unusual – and rare – series of events in this matter thus far, it is possible. There is still a lot of smoke here. Until it becomes clear, it’s hard to make big moves in either direction — other than selling positions in the smaller banks of the larger San Francisco business community.

Major market indices are down this morning, but not so starkly lower: the Dow is -240 points, the S&P 500 is -30 and the Nasdaq is -50 points. What we do know is that the Biden administration is focused on this issue right now (better than ignoring this could be a big deal, we suppose), and that this financial earthquake is real, even if it doesn’t have many aftershocks. If we start to get the idea that something more worrying is afoot, we might expect the Fed to once again re-treat its monetary policy nine days before its next interest rate decision.

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