The impact of the Taiwan earthquake on DRAM output will be minimal in the second quarter

Following the 7.2 magnitude earthquake that struck Taiwan on April 3, 2024, there was immediate concern about the impact this could have on chip production within the country. Even for a well-prepared country like Taiwan, the quake was the strongest to hit the region in 25 years, making it no easy matter. But according to research conducted by TrendForce, the impact on DRAM production will not be significant. The market tracking firm believes that Taiwan's DRAM industry has remained largely unaffected, primarily due to robust earthquake preparedness measures.

There are four memory makers in Taiwan: Micron, the only member of the “Big Three” memory manufacturers on the island, operates two of the memory manufacturers. Meanwhile, smaller companies include Nanya (which has one factory), Winbond (which makes specialized memory in one factory), and PSMC (which produces specialized memory in one factory). The study found that these DRAM producers quickly resumed full operations, but were forced to scrap some chips. The earthquake is estimated to have a minor impact on Q2 DRAM production, with a minimal impact of 1%, claims TrendForce.

In fact, as Micron ramps up DRAM production on 1alpha and 1beta nm process technologies, it is increasing bit production of memory, which will positively impact commodity DRAM supply in Q2 2025.

In the aftermath of the earthquake, there was a temporary pause in quotations for both the contract and spot DRAM markets. However, spot market quotes have already largely resumed, while contract prices have not yet fully resumed. It's worth noting that Micron and Samsung stopped releasing quotes for mobile DRAM immediately after the earthquake, with no updates provided as of April 8. In contrast, SK hynix resumed price quotes to smartphone customers on the day of the earthquake and proposed more moderate adjustments to mobile DRAM prices for the second quarter.

TrendForce expects seasonal mobile DRAM contract prices for the second quarter to increase between 3% and 8%. This moderate increase is due in part to SK hynix's more restrictive pricing strategy, which will likely impact overall pricing strategies across the industry. The server DRAM earthquake primarily affected Micron's advanced manufacturing nodes, which could result in higher final selling prices for Micron's server DRAM, according to TrendForce. However, we have yet to see the exact direction of future prices.

Meanwhile, DRAM factories outside Taiwan were not directly affected by the earthquake. This includes Micron's HBM production line in Hiroshima, Japan, and Samsung's and SK hynix's HBM lines in South Korea, all of which appear to be operating as usual.

Overall, the DRAM industry demonstrated resilience to the earthquake, with minimal disruption and rapid recovery. Abundant inventory levels of DDR4 and DDR5, coupled with weak demand, suggest that any minor price increases due to the earthquake are expected to normalize quickly. The only possible thing here is DDR3, which is nearing the end of its commercial life and production is already declining.

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