Cascadia: Is a huge earthquake coming soon? Here's when scientists might say it will happen

Last week, Japan issued its first major earthquake warning after a 7.1-magnitude quake struck the southern island of Kyushu. The quake wasn’t the main concern, though, as the tremor didn’t produce much damage, and the largest tsunami it could have produced would have been knee-deep. Instead, seismologists were worried that the quake could cause a rupture that could set off a bomb that was ticking offshore Japan, near the Nankai Trough, perhaps the country’s most dangerous fault. The Japanese government estimates that the subduction zone has the potential to produce tsunamis as high as 100 feet and kill nearly a third of a million people. “We don’t have that kind of protocol” in the United States, Harold Tobin, a seismologist in Washington state, told NBC News. The Cascadia subduction zone, however, has equally dangerous faults. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, a magnitude 9.0 Cascadia Fault earthquake and deadly tsunami would kill 14,000 people in Oregon and Washington. Tobin has been thinking about this scenario for years: Why raise an alarm if he finds even slight evidence that a catastrophic quake is likely? Part of Tobin’s dilemma stems from this peculiar period in his field: In the world’s most seismically vulnerable regions, researchers believe they are narrowing down the causes or triggers of earthquakes, but the science is far from conclusive. Also read: Will Jordan Chiles return her 2024 Olympic bronze medal after the IOC’s decision? Here’s what she said The likelihood of an earthquake is still low, even in situations where it might be more likely. And that raises important concerns about when exactly people should be notified. According to research by geophysicist Danny Brothers of the U.S. Geological Survey, parts of the Cascadia subduction zone, which runs along the U.S. West Coast from northern California to northern Vancouver Island, have likely experienced at least 30 major earthquakes over the past 14,200 years. On average, a major earthquake occurs there at least once every 450-500 years. Yet Cascadia has been silent for years; some scientists attribute this to the area being so “confined” and under stress. A portion of the seafloor will break off and fall forward, perhaps dozens of feet or more. A tsunami will come ashore because of the vertical displacement of the seafloor.

On the Cascadia Fault, scientists are getting a better sense of the early warning signs of a major earthquake. Slow-slip events are being investigated as potential precursors to larger quakes, because they release energy gradually over weeks or months. Initiatives are underway to improve monitoring of the Cascadia Fault. Harold Tobin, a seismologist in Washington state, is part of a research team working to map the fault more precisely and improve marine monitoring capabilities. The goal is to collect additional data that can be used to predict when a major quake is likely to occur.

Read also: Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez Are Taking a Great Summer Vacation; Here’s What They’re Up Tobin and geophysicist Laura Wallace are among the scientists who believe that giant subduction-zone earthquakes may sometimes be preceded by these slow-slip events. Before the 9.0-magnitude Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan in 2011 and led to the Fukushima nuclear accident that killed more than 18,000 people, scientists documented slow-slip events. Before an 8.1-magnitude earthquake struck Chile in 2014, a similar pattern occurred. Although Japan is one of the few places with such tools, geophysicist David Schmidt of the University of Washington notes that the country has an advanced suite of seafloor sensors. While the United States lags behind other nations in monitoring the seafloor, Schmidt and Tobin are part of a team that received $10.6 million from the federal government to equip a fiber-optic cable off the coast of Oregon with seismic sensors and seafloor pressure gauges. The goal of seismologists is to be prepared to warn the public and possibly save lives when the time comes. Frequently Asked Questions What is the Cascadia Subduction Zone? A fault line known as the Cascadia Subduction Zone runs from northern California to Vancouver Island. Because it has the potential to cause a large-scale earthquake, it is considered extremely dangerous.

How can slow slip events be used to predict major earthquakes? Slow slip events are seismic movements in which energy is released gradually over weeks or months, rather than suddenly, and can be indicators of larger, catastrophic earthquakes.

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