The Myanmar earthquake tests the grip of the military council

After Hurricane Nargis bombed a coast southwest of Myanmar in 2008, military rulers in the country removed the US military ships loaded with supplies and waited weeks before accepting aid they were afraid to be a cover to change the system.

But while the country faces the latest natural disaster in Myanmar, Myanmar military struck a different tone, announcing the state of emergency and calling for humanitarian assistance and blood donations a few hours after an earthquake of 7.7 degrees destroying the second city in the country, Mandalay.

Analysts said this shift shows that the regime's weakness after four years of seizure of power in a coup, as it fights the formulation of widespread armed resistance across the country and international decline.

“this [receptiveness to help] Richard Hors, the Senior consultant of Myanmar in the group of crisis, said it is a reflection of the seriousness of the crisis, but also how smallly they should respond.

“There is no hide or this is going on,” he added about a crisis that shocked Myanmar's cultural heart in Myanmar. “It is not in [Ayeyarwady river] Delta, like Nargis, “referring to the sprawling rice basket.

A monk walks through a collapsed building in Mandalay © Sai Aung Main/AFP/Getty Imagesa applies cosmetics where residents meet in a temporary tent camp in Mandalay © Sai Aung Main/AFP/Getty Images

More than 2,700 people have been killed in the earthquake and were injured, according to the military authorities, and the numbers are expected to rise.

“The earthquake has enlarged, and misery in this country has doubled,” said Dr. Oni Krishnan, the global humanitarian director of the UK -based international plan.

Analysts and relief workers said that Myanmar's ability to rebuild, in large part, depends on international partners, with its economy in a war after years of civil war. But it comes at a time when the United States, which was the largest source of humanitarian assistance in the country last year, reduced foreign aid.

Myanmar's economy – which was not developed, relying on resource extraction, agriculture and clothing manufacturing – has been moved due to Western sanctions since the coup in 2021, which created the Nobel Peace Prize government elected Aung San Suu Ki.

Since then, growth has stopped, inflation has risen and poverty has almost doubled to about 50 percent of the population, according to a recently released report on the United Nations Development Program.

“The economy was suspended by a thread” leaving the country “not equipped to deal with an earthquake of this size,” said analysts at Moody's Analytics in a note.

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Indeed, rescue teams from China, Russia, India, Singapore and Thailand support local authorities. The UK pledged with a support of 10 million pounds, while the United States allocated $ 2 million through local humanitarian groups. The American embassy said, despite the Trump administration's efforts to dissolve the agency, despite the efforts of the Trump administration to dissolve the agency.

The United States provided between 25 percent and 40 percent of all human financing to Myanmar between 2019 and 2024, according to ACAPS in Switzerland, including $ 129 million, or 30 percent of the United Nations Humanitarian response plan last year.

This year, this program was funded this year only 5 percent, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. In general, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reduced more than 85 percent of the United States Agency for International Development, including every three in Myanmar.

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JUNTA's response will also be closely monitored by China, Jar Myanmar and the primary shepherd, which supports the regime and some armed rebel groups. While Beijing had no affection for Mine Aung Hinging, Hori said, “He could not adhere to a sudden collapse of the regime” and an electrical emptiness on its borders.

The disaster struck the essence of the army, which includes less than half of the country, with strategic border areas in the hands of their opponents.

But even in its heart, the military council faced a widespread general opposition, after it launched a brutal campaign against the “Popular Defense Forces” supporting democracy.

“After the coup, many societies turned, resistant to the revolution,” said Horsy. The army “dares to show their face in most of these societies.”

Chinese rescue workers stand at the site of the collapsing building in Mandalay © Stringer/Lutersa Russian Medical Volunteer Works inside a temporary medical center in a stadium in Mandalay © Stringer/AP

In the past, the Myanmar army was accused of banning aid to the opposition -controlled areas, such as West Rakhine in 2023.

Morgan Michaels, an IISS research colleague in Singapore, said, although it is possible that the council can deny that Junta will prohibit aid to areas controlled by rebel groups.

The fact that immediate resources will focus on the intense urban areas controlled by military, such as Mandalay and the capital of the capital, Naibidawo, “will also contribute to the impression that the military council directs aid to certain areas.”

The destruction of Hurricane Nargis, who finally killed more than 100,000 people, angered inside Myanmar, caught the international attention, and put the ruling generals on defense. Former US President Barack Obama made a democratic transition in Myanmar diplomatic priority. Soon after the hurricane, the generals began moving to the semi -favorite base, which proved its shortness.

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While experts said that the need for help can provide some influence over the system, a few of them believe that the earthquake will lead to international pressure for change in view of the sharp global conflicts elsewhere.

The Muslim Brotherhood coalition-which was among the most effective resistance groups, announced that it handed over a thunderbolt campaign near the Chinese border in late 2023-on a one-month humanitarian pause to fight late on Tuesday.

The National Unity Government, a group of ousted legislators, pledged a similar pledge on Saturday to stop calm for two weeks.

Improved

But the military regime continued to carry out air strikes.

Analysts say there is also an opportunity for rebels to escalate attacks, especially since the mountainous borders in Myanmar, where armed groups prevail, have been less affected.

“If there is a homosexual, or the destruction of fuel storage warehouses,” Michaels said. “This is a good moment to hit the system.”

Additional reports by Owen Walker in Singapore; Maps by Cliff Jones. The satellite and depicts data by Jana Tauschinski

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