During the COVID-19 pandemic, influenza activity was virtually non-existent, but it could change soon: two new studies influenza The roar will come back this fall and winter.
One study predicts that the flu season from 2021 to 2022 may increase hospitalizations for influenza by 100,000 to 400,000 compared to the normal season.
Survey results posted to the preprint database this week medrXiv Not yet peer-reviewed, Influenza vaccination This year — Both studies suggested that a 20% to 50% increase in flu immunization rates compared to a normal year could avoid the bad flu season. “Vaccination of as many people as possible with influenza is the key to avoiding this scenario,” said the director of the Institute for Public Health Dynamics at the University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health and senior author of both studies. Dr. Mark Roberts, Said in a statement..
Historically last year Low level influenza activityProbably due to measures to prevent COVID-19, such as social distance, school closures, wearing masks, and reduced travel. During the 2020-2021 influenza season, the overall hospitalization rate for influenza in the United States was approximately four times per 100,000. Compared to the usual rate of 70 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Researchers said influenza-related deaths were reduced by 95%.
This means that the U.S. population “missed the opportunity to establish or strengthen immunity.” [to the flu] Researchers said they were “for the future flu season”, raising concerns that influenza could recur when COVID-19 precautions were lifted.that’s why Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)“This is not a precursor to the upcoming flu season,” Roberts said.
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In one of the new studies led by Pitt Public Health postdoctoral researcher Kyueun Lee, researchers used a mathematical model called the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. They used data from 2009 to 2020 to simulate influenza pandemics and levels of herd immunity to influenza over multiple seasons.
They predicted that influenza hospitalizations would surge to 610,000 between 2021 and 2022 due to the low activity of influenza seen in the 2020-2021 season. Influenza activity. In the worst-case scenario with highly contagious strains of influenza and low levels of influenza vaccination, the model predicted 409,000 more hospitalizations (or more than 900,000 hospitalizations overall) than expected.
However, the study found that if the proportion of Americans vaccinated against the flu increased from the usual 50% to 75%, the expected increase in hospitalization for the flu could be avoided.
A second study, led by Mary Krauland, who studies mathematical modeling at Pitt Public Health, uses another model called a framework for reconstructing epidemiological dynamics to combine two consecutive influenza cases and hospitalizations. Simulated over the flu season. The findings suggest that the 2021-2022 flu season may have a 20% increase in influenza cases compared to the normal season. Infants (under 2 years) are less likely to have been previously exposed to the flu, so the risk of influenza is particularly high during the 2021-202 season, the authors said.
However, studies have shown that increasing influenza vaccination rates by only 10% can reduce hospitalizations by 6% to 46%, depending on the transmission of influenza this season.
“The co-occurrence” epidemic “of influenza and COVID-19 was thankfully avoided last year, overwhelming our hospital. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible anymore, “Roberts said. “If anything, our model needs to be more worried this year about the potential for a surge in COVID-19, as well as the outbreak of large-scale influenza in regions of countries where vaccination rates for both diseases are low. It shows that there is. “
Originally published in Live Science.
