Health

UVA researchers predict the next upcoming COVID in Virginia

When cases and hospitalizations in Richmond, Virginia-COVID-19 reached record highs, Governor Ralph Northam issued his new state of emergency aimed at helping hospitals cope with bed and staff shortages. Said.

However, the state of emergency is set to last for only 30 days, based on a model that models how the current surge of cases will occur.

This model was developed by a team of researchers at the University of Virginia during the pandemic.

“This can ruin our population and cause many infectious diseases,” said Bryan Lewis, an associate professor of research at UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute.

Lewis said what was happening was what they predicted shortly before Christmas, as all 35 federal health districts are skyrocketing with cases of coronavirus.

“And given the amount or effect estimates that Omicron can escape immunity, the number of cases we can create is still staggering,” Lewis said.

The model estimates cases that peak at 400,000 a week in late January.

However, Lewis said tests may not be able to tell the true picture of the virus. For this reason, he said it was important to keep an eye on hospitalization.

Omicron variants are not considered to be very serious, but hospitalization is expected to increase for several weeks.

“If you triple or quadruple the number of cases, the pool will be much larger,” Lewis said.

According to Lewis, predictions of post-peak descent rates depend on factors such as mitigation measures. He adds that modeling the new variant was difficult due to its rapid spread across the country.

“There are still a lot of unanswered questions about trying to burn into the model,” Lewis said.

That said, Lewis believes that infection rates can be mitigated towards more stable levels that do not overwhelm hospitals, and vaccination and boosters can help speed it up.

“We will build more immunity in our population. It won’t be able to move that fast,” Lewis said.

In the long run, Lewis points to the trajectory of the 1918 flue pandemic. He said COVID is likely to sound loud for the first few years, but will eventually normalize.

“After five or six years, there will be seasonal effects that may be more synchronized with the flu,” Lewis said.

Lewis said the focus is currently on COVID, but he doesn’t want people to forget about the flu. He encourages people to be vaccinated against the flu as the peak flu season is approaching.

Sources

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