“Going Bad”: Omicron variants may result in the second largest US Covid wave | Omicron variant

TThe BA.5 version of Covid-19 is Many A variant of the virus in the United States in the coming weeks, with a nasty development coming in the midst of what May already be The second largest pandemic wave in the United States.

It also happens when much of the United States relaxes almost all Covid restrictions in public and returns to near normal life.

“Covid-19 is clearly not over. Cases and hospitalizations have increased dramatically in many parts of the United States,” said Jason Salemi, an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of South Florida’s public university. Says. health..

“We’re heading in the wrong direction,” Salemi said when one of Omicron’s subvariants, BA.5, launched Buffett in the United States. “We’ve seen it come for a while … we’ve seen it go pretty unabated.”

More than one in three Americans live in Covid’s medium-risk counties, and one in five is at high risk. according to To the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). According to Salemi, this is the highest percentage of countries facing risk since February.

Currently, there are over 100,000 new cases of Covid Confirmed Every day in the US – the rate has been fairly stable for the last 6 weeks. Cases in the northeast have slowed, but surges are now hitting other parts of the country.

At the same time, hospitalization gain It has risen steadily since the lowest pandemic drop in April, but the rise is not as steep as the previous wave and the peak is not high.

“The older you get, the more likely you are to be hospitalized,” Salemi said. “But hospitalization is increasing in all age groups.”

Hospitalization tends to be delayed by a few days. However, the apparently stable case rate with increased hospitalization means that something else seems to be working-perhaps in the face of more contagious and antigenicable pathogenic mutations. Experts said that their immunity was weakened.

The virus has evolved to protect against vaccination infections and to avoid recovery from previous illnesses caused by Covid, and appears to be highly infectious.

The antigenic escape properties of evolving variants make new waves more likely, said Triode Oliveira, director of the Center for Epidemic Response and Innovation at Stellenbosch University and leader of the South African genome surveillance network.

“BA.4 and 5 may be the easiest variants to break through immunity,” he said. They “really can be re-infected”.

In South Africa, BA.1 (the first variant of Omicron) provided little protection against infection with BA.4 and BA.5, De Oliveira said. According to the laboratory, the antibodies produced by the BA.1 infection do not prevent reinfection after a few months. research..

He said the BA.2 infection seemed to provide some protection, probably because the wave was more recent.

However, while immunity to infections appears to be low, previous immunity is well tolerated by serious consequences such as hospitalization and death.

Vaccinated and previously infected people “easily get BA.4 and BA.5, but few illnesses develop,” De Oliveira said.

With preprint study In hamsters, the new variant appears to be much more toxic and pathogenic than the previous Omicron variant. However, in South Africa, BA.4 and 5 were less severe than the other Omicron waves.

This is because the severity of these variants depends on the level of immunity in addition to their unique characteristics. “now [severity] It’s not just the variant itself, but the characteristics of the variant and the population it encounters, “says De Oliveira.

Even before this surge, it was estimated that about 95% of South Africans had protection from previous attacks by vaccination or Covid.

“We believe that this hybrid immunity in South Africa maintains the wave of BA.4 and BA.5, with very few hospitalizations and deaths,” said De Oliveira.

High levels of immunity help keep serious illnesses away, even if the mutants are more pathogenic in the laboratory. Therefore, it is important to have the latest information on vaccination.

“The first and second boosters are very important,” Salemi said.

Still, only 34% of eligible Americans (Americans over 5 years old) received The booster dose recommended by the CDC. The first booster intake was better among older Americans in the highest risk age group, while the second booster intake was very low.

“Without these booster doses, there are many opportunities to weaken immunity and weaken vaccine protection, which can cause some more damage to these new circulating variants with some of the more worrisome properties. You can, “says Salemi. Weakened immunity and highly immune-avoidant mutants mean that “recovery will be seen in some of the indicators of these serious illnesses.”

Even in South Africa, the death toll remained low as hospitals were not overwhelmed. “When the BA.4 and BA.5 waves started, we had a completely empty ICU, so anyone who got sick could get good support,” de Oliveira said. Told.

“That will be the key to the United States,” he said. “It’s very different if a new wave is coming and the hospital is already overwhelmed.” One of the reasons why the delta wave was so deadly was that it protracted and filled the hospital for a long time. He said.

Low-immune US pockets, including those who have not recently been vaccinated or have not recovered from the virus, can get more serious illness. But places with high vaccination rates and recent surges will probably work well when it comes to hospitalization and death, he said.

In South Africa, the waves came and ended soon – but it had a significant economic impact and people couldn’t work because of illness.

Americans need to “reduce numbers as soon as possible,” Salemi said, to minimize the effects of surges, including the risk of economic turmoil and long-term problems such as long covids.

This includes taking the same steps that have been proven to help manage the virus in the past. Vaccines, masks, distances, ventilation, tests.

“Don’t think about all or all mitigations,” Salemi said. “There are simple steps we can take to dramatically reduce risk, not only for ourselves and our families, but also for many very vulnerable members of our community.”

Scientists and officials around the world must continue to monitor each infection, as deOliveira said, as each infection provides a new opportunity for the virus to evolve and escape immunity.

“This virus has surprised us many times.”