Health
The COVID-19 pandemic has created challenges in interpreting cancer incidence trends
Disruption to healthcare due to the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a decline in cancer diagnoses in 2020, creating challenges in estimating and interpreting long-term cancer trends, academics say. This was revealed in a study published in the journal. National Cancer Institute Journal.
The researchers noted that the overall cancer diagnosis rate in the SEER database decreased by 10% in 2020 compared to 2019. Cancer incidence decreased by 9.6% in men and 9.3% in women.
The greatest reductions in incidence were seen for melanoma (15.8% males, 14.3% females) and thyroid cancer (14.0% males, 17.9% females). The smallest reduction was in pancreatic cancer (4.3% in men and 3.9% in women).
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In addition to calculating changes in cancer incidence in 2020, the researchers demonstrate that including 2020 cancer incidence in the joinpoint model can lead to less accurate trend estimates. Did.
The researchers used SEER-22 data submitted in November 2021 (2000-2019), November 2022 (2000-2020), and November 2022, excluding 2020. , fitted a three-joint model to age- and delay-adjusted cancer incidence.
For all cancer sites combined, models including 2020 incidence suggested that cancer incidence declined at a steady rate since 2000 (percent change per year) [APC], 0.60%). Modeling excluding the 2020 incidence suggested that overall cancer incidence remained stable from 2013 to 2019.
A model including the 2020 incidence suggested that melanoma incidence began to decline by 5.12% per year in 2018. A model that excludes the 2020 incidence suggests that the incidence of melanoma has increased by 1.15% to 1.16% per year since 2005.
A model that included the 2020 incidence suggested that prostate cancer incidence increased by 2.06% per year between 2014 and 2020. A model that excludes the 2020 rate suggested a further increase in prostate cancer incidence between 2014 and 2019. APC was 3.7% for November 2021 filings and 3.8% for November 2022 filings excluding 2020.
The researchers noted that these examples “included 2020 incidence in join-point models resulting in a poorer fit to the data and less accurate long-term trend estimates, or less accurate trend estimates.” It clearly shows that there can be challenges in interpretation.” ”
Based on these findings, the researchers proposed excluding 2020 cancer incidence from trend estimates in the 2023 Cancer Statistics Annual Report.
“The decision to exclude 2020 interest rates from future trend analysis rests on 2021 interest rates,” the researchers wrote. “If 2021 rates continue to fall, we may reconsider incorporating 2020 rates. rate may be excluded from the joinpoint analysis.”
reference
Marriott AB, Foyer EJ, Howarder N, etc. Interpreting cancer incidence trends: challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. lancet oncol. Published online May 23, 2023. doi:10.1093/jnci/djad086
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