Health
COVID-19 test reveals case and does not cause higher positivity
Claim: The US surge in coronavirus cases is caused by more testing.
Coronavirus pandemics are getting worse in the US Majority A condition that indicates an increase in infection National average is about 66,000 new cases per day As of July 28.
As of July, the United States Coronavirus cases in the world Despite only 4% of the world’s population.
President Donald Trump argued that the dramatic increase in incidents in the United States was the result of expanded testing, saying the country was in fact early in the month.In a good placeThis stance is in conflict with leading medical professionals in the country, including Dr. Anthony Forsy, who calls him. The increase in testing does not explain the surge in cases..
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Governor of the State Republicans, which emerged as a hotspot in June — including Texas and Florida — Following the President’s leadership, attributed the increase in incidents to more tests..
As the number of cases continues to increase nationwide and the number of hospitals reaches Self-satisfaction and the risk of incorrect information Surround the virus. Social media allowed False information about a wildfire-like virus, Raises concerns among health professionals.
Viral facebook Position From the beginning of July, the stance of increasing the number of tests causing case spikes has been repeated, contributing to the spread of this false alarm. “There are spikes in the coronavirus case because there are spikes in the test. With more IQ tests, Moron also gets spikes,” he said.
However, ideas are widely shared in posts across social media.
How is Coronavirus tracked?
The three most prominent coronavirus data points tracked by the United States are the number of positive cases. Mortality And that Positive rate..
The number of positive cases is a simple data point. This is the total number of people who have had a positive COVID-19 test result.
Mortality indicates the percentage of the population of people who test positive for dying of the virus.
The positive rate has emerged as one of the most important data points as the number of cases has skyrocketed. This shows what percentage of people tested are infected with the virus.
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More:Fact Check: What’s Right and Wrong About Coronaviruses?
If properly tested, the positive rate can be a better indicator of virus spread. The positive rate should remain relatively constant unless the virus has spread.
According to the World Health Organization, countries that have conducted appropriate tests are: Positive rate that remains below 5%.. There are two ideas behind this guideline. With proper testing, the spread of the virus can be accurately tracked, and the positive rate is ideally low and should be consistent.
Dr. Justin Lesser, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, said the WHO 5% guideline is “a very rough rule of thumb to help countries coordinate their test programs. If so, we might be able to test the whole population, but still not get up to 5%.”
If the positivity rate is much higher than 5%, it’s likely that not enough people are being tested, Lesser said.
An increase in positivity means that the spread of the virus is increasing and/or that the region is not fully tested to accurately measure the spread of the virus, or both. There is a possibility.
The positive rate should remain relatively constant if the virus has not spread despite changes in test capacity.
“The fact that the test positive rate is increasing (in the United States) while increasing (in the United States) is very strong evidence that the surge in cases is real,” Wrestler said. ..
You can also see a comparison of IQ tests on the post to understand the positive rate. Contrary to what is written in the post, the relative proportion of intelligence levels between the populations remains constant despite the increase in IQ tests. Increasing the IQ test does not increase the percentage of people with low scores.
Furthermore, intelligence or lack thereof is not contagious.
How has the positive rate changed compared to the test?
by COVID tracking projectSince mid-May, the positive rate has increased above the test rate in the Midwest, South, and West, leading to higher rates of infection in these areas. Positive rates declined, then reached a plateau in the northeast, which suffered most during the early weeks of its outbreak in the United States.
average US positive rate The highest in late March and early April was due to limited testing supplies, which only the most sick could test.
The United States recorded the lowest positive rate of 4.3% in mid-June. Since then, the country’s positive rate has doubled, reaching 8.2% as of July 27.
More:Why bars are hot spots for COVID-19 transmission
The average number of tests performed nationwide has increased by 80% since early June, while the daily number of cases has increased by 215%, by New York Times.
Data from states that emerged as hotspots show when and how the virus began to spread. For example, in May of Arizona Positive rate It remained around 7% and increased steadily in June. Currently in the state Highest positive rate in the country, 22.67%.
Ah ProPublica analysis From May 25 to June 23, we examined the 7-day average of the tests performed and the total number of positive cases in each state by state.
The analysis showed that the number of positive cases increased by 698%, while testing in Arizona increased by 175%. This means that the expansion of state examinations does not even explain the increase in cases.
In Texas, Positive rate It remained around 5% in May and rose steadily until June. Currently, Texas has a positive rate of 12.9%. The number of positive cases increased by 273%, but the number of tests increased by 98%.
Florida Broke the national record Most cases were reported in one day by one state, with 15,300 new cases reported on 12 July. May in Florida Positive rate The range of 2%-5%. The positive rate soared through June and is now 19.2%. Sunshine State testing decreased by 22% and the number of positive cases increased by 341%.
States such as New York and Indiana have seen an increase in testing while the number of positive cases has decreased. In New York, tests increased by 50% and cases decreased by 60%, while in Indiana tests increased by 48% and cases decreased by 40%.
These data points show that expanded testing is not the reason for the proliferation of cases.
The data suggest that the surge in cases in many of the country’s hotspots may be due to reopening too soon. “There is no doubt” that the resurgence was realistic and that the increase in incidents was related to the mitigation of social separation measures, said Lesser.
“It’s not a problem when we reduce social distances, it’s a question of what we do when we reduce social distances,” he said.
Lesser said he wasn’t too early a fan of the open conversation. “It means that the time that could have been waiting with a complete lockdown may no longer be a magical issue. How to control the virus without all the social distance measures Before Making a Proper Plan”
More:“It really destroys us”: beach towns fear they can’t survive the summer of COVID-19
In a surge of hospital fights overwhelming the United States, local and state governments are working to slow down the spread of the virus by forcing or encouraging masks and closing out highly infected areas. Wrestler said the state wants the state to be creative and thoughtful in its plans to control the virus.
“When people are thinking about their own safety and the risks of rebirth, they shouldn’t wait, they should now be cautious,” he said. “… And by the time those increases occur, the virus is already widespread, so don’t wait for more cases or deaths or hospitalizations in their communities.”
Our rating: partially false
Based on our research, we rated the claim that “there is a spike in coronavirus cases because of spikes in testing” as partially false. There are two ways to investigate this problem: number of cases and positive rate. It is true that the expanded test reveals more positive cases. However, it is false to say that more tests create more cases or cause a dramatic increase in positive rates. Higher positive rates in the expanding test are the result of the spread of the virus throughout the test area.
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