Health
Achieving an unrealistic public health strategy for COVID-19 herd immunity: research
Achieve herd immunity COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears According to researchers, immunity is unrealistic, immunity is not perfect, and it is rarely achieved by widespread exposure.
Published in the National Academy of Sciences journal Proceedings, the study investigated suppression and mitigation approaches to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
“The concept of herd immunity marks the end of the COVID-19 threat and is appetizing,” said Toby Brett of the University of Georgia, USA, the author of the research group.
“But this approach aims to avoid eradication of the disease, so lockdown measures need to be constantly adjusted to ensure that enough people are infected at any given time.” Brett added.
Survey method
The research team sought to determine if and how the country could achieve herd immunity without burdening the health care system.
They have developed an age-based disease infection model that simulates SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United Kingdom and controlled the spread of the infection by self-separation of symptomatic individuals and various levels of social distance.
Investigation result
According to their simulations, there were as many as 410,000 deaths in the UK without COVID-19-related controls, of which 350,000 were from individuals over the age of 60.
They found that using a suppression strategy resulted in a much lower expected number of deaths: 62,000 for individuals over the age of 60 and 43,000 for individuals under the age of 60.
With high involvement in self-isolation (defined as a reduction of at least 70% of infection), suppression can be achieved in two months regardless of social isolation measures, the closer the school, workplace, and social gathering are, the faster. There is a possibility.
Instead, in order to achieve herd immunity taking into account the hospital resources currently available, the UK adjusts the level of social distance in real time, although the number of sick individuals is equal to the hospital’s capacity. Must not be exceeded.
“If the virus spreads too fast, the hospital will be overwhelmed, but if it spreads too slowly, the infectious disease will be suppressed without gaining immunity to the herd,” the team wrote.
They further noted that much is unclear about the nature, duration, and efficacy of COVID-19 immunity, and that their model assumes complete long-term immunity.
The team warned that widespread exposure is unlikely to achieve herd immunity if immunity is not perfect and there is great potential for reinfection.
“We recognize that there is still much to learn about COVID-19 infection and immunity,” the study authors said.
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