These are the stories of the British coronavirus that you need to know today.
Risk tools predict hospitalization and death
Researchers in the United Kingdom have developed a COVID-19 risk tool called QCOVID to help assess patients at highest risk of hospitalization or death.
It was developed using data from over 8 million English GP records for patients aged 19-100 years and is linked to COVID-19 test results, hospitals, and death registration data.
Known risk factors such as age, ethnicity, and comorbidities are considered.
The tool predicted 73% and 74% of COVID-19 time-to-death variability in men and women, respectively.The results are published in BMJ..
Julia Hippisley Cox, a senior researcher at Oxford University, a general practitioner and professor of clinical epidemiology and general practice, said in a statement: “Risk assessments to date have been based on the best evidence and clinical expertise, but have focused primarily on a single focus. Factor: QCOVID risk model is used cumulatively to estimate risk. It provides a much more subtle assessment of risk by taking into account several different factors.
“This model helps provide clinical advice so that people can take proportional precautions to protect themselves from COVID-19.”
The tool will be updated as new data emerges. Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, commented through the Science Media Center, saying: Response to managing public health threats over the coming months and years “
Latest local lockdown
South Yorkshire is the latest region to move to a very high Tier 3 blockade from Saturday.
The latest 7-day case rates per 100,000 people in the region are:
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Sheffield: 402
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Barnsley: 367
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Rotherham: 341
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Doncaster: 285
Scotland will not relax the latest restrictions that were scheduled to end on Monday. These will be extended prior to the introduction of new tiered systems.
Introduction of lung cancer
The number of people urgently referred to lung cancer specialists decreased by 75% during the first wave of COVID-19, according to reports from British Lung Cancer Union (UKLCC).
According to the report, at least one-third of lung cancer patients have already died since the onset of the pandemic, and some deaths may be labeled as COVID-19.
UKLCC Chair Professor Mick Peake said in a statement: “Fear of involvement in medical services, cancellation of national programs for lung cancer screening pilots, restrictions on access to diagnostic tests are all in England.”
“The government’s guidance to cough and stay home, a major symptom of lung cancer, is also causing further confusion,” he added.
Daily data
Today’s Daily data An additional 26,688 UK positive tests were reported, killing 191 people.
The hospital has 6479 COVID-19 patients and 629 ventilator beds are used.
Nowcast and Forecast
The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge has published a weekly COVID-19. UK Nowcast and Forecast.
In the latest findings:
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Estimated to have 53,200 infections daily
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The daily death toll could be between 230 and 515 by October 31st.
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R is estimated to be above 1.0 in most regions
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London, followed by northwest, continues to show the highest incidence
Professor Daniela de Angelis, Senior Researcher, commented: “Our latest results show that R ranges from 1.1 to 1.5 in all seven NHS regions, with approximately 50,000 new daily infections nationwide (range 35,000 to 80,000), especially concentrated in the north. Indicates that there are east and northwest.
“But the infection seems to be accelerating in eastern and southwestern England. Only these two regions [ones] Growth rates are not currently flat. This situation needs to be closely monitored over the next period. “
Expert stats help
Pandemic statistics are not always the strength of UK public health services.The number of death is Do not let anyone recover After a positive test for death for any reason, it was later counted as a COVID-19 death. Then a 28-day cutoff was introduced.
Currently, new partnerships are being announced between the Joint Biosecurity Center, the Alan Turing Institute, and the Royal Statistics Society (RSS).
Professor Sylvia Richardson, President-elect of RSS, commented:
“The Royal Statistical Society, together with the Alan Turing Institute, will be able to work transparently and independently in providing the research needed at both the local and national levels.”
Care staff crisis
Report from Care Workforce Intelligence Team Skills In the UK, with an average vacancy rate of 7.3% and a turnover rate of 30.4%, there are ongoing problems with social care.
Nina Hemmings, a researcher at Nuffield Trust, commented: They must be better supported in their health and well-being. “
See more Medscape Global Coronavirus Updates Coronavirus Resource Center.
