Health
ASU’s new COVID-19 model shows continuous improvement in Arizona
The new COVID-19 model, made by ASU, shows predictions of hospitalization and death in the coming weeks.
The forecast edited by the ASU modeling team is the first update since November. The model shows a peak of hospitalization in January and is expected to continue to decline until February.
“It’s very clear that the numbers are improving,” said Dr. Joshua Labea, Secretary-General of the ASU Institute for Biodesign.
The updated ASU model shows predictions of hospitalization, mortality, and infection, and infection rates can fluctuate by 10% with either method. The model shows that the total number of COVID-19 hospitalizations currently over 4,000 could be reduced by about 50% next month.
“Overall, we believe that 22% to 27% of the population is infected,” said Dr. La Baer.
The updated model also looks at how the virus has spread throughout Arizona in recent months. After the virus infection slowed following the surge last summer, the modeling team noted that COVID-19 infections increased by 79% around September 7.
According to ASU data, infection rates surged further in the state around October 26th. The state had the highest levels of viral infection between October 26th and November 28th. That time frame included Halloween, elections, related rallies, and Thanksgiving.
“I think you hit the main risk factors in your head,” said Dr. La Baer. “I think part of the campaign certainly contributed to the spread of the virus. When it comes to vacation trips, I think it was probably like people returning home here and new people entering homes that weren’t. Before they brought the virus. “
According to the model, COVID-19 deaths in Arizona could exceed 15,000 by the end of February. The Arizona Department of Health currently claims that 13,362 people have died from COVID-19 in Arizona.
One of the future wildcards is Appearance of COVID-19 variant.
“For now, it’s a battle against time between variants. British variant with high transmission rate, And the vaccine, “said Dr. Labea. “I’m a little worried that the variant might win, but I need to make sure. I hope it doesn’t.”
The ASU model plans to improve the condition of the hospital in the future, but frontline doctors said they also see some relief in ABC15.
“One of the things I noticed is that the number of patients we admit has decreased,” said Dr. Andrew Carroll.
Dr. Carroll is a family doctor engaged in a surge shift at Valley Hospital. His latest surge shift was last weekend.
“I remember the scene where a nurse in the emergency room corridor was crying when I went on Saturday night,” he said. “I think people are just starting to wear out. People are tired and frustrated.”
Dr. Carroll said the reduction in hospitalization was not the time to celebrate and advised people to wear masks and take precautions against the virus.
“Once you start downhill, you want to go to the bottom of the hill,” said Dr. Carroll. “You are still [have] You will ski or crash. “
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