Health
COVID-19 cases decreased in the high vaccination group
- As more people are vaccinated against the coronavirus, researchers will be able to see how well the vaccine works in the real world.
- The actual efficacy of a vaccine is often less than that found in clinical trials due to many factors.
- Recent data from California and Israel have found that cases are declining as more people are vaccinated.
Last week, the Los Angeles Fire Department reported a dramatic reduction in daily COVID-19 cases since firefighters began vaccination with the coronavirus vaccine in late December.
With the surroundings Three-quarters of Members of the vaccinated city fire department Note From Fire Chief Ralph Terrazas The daily number of positive tests in the department reported a decrease from nearly 20 in December to less than 5 last week.This memo was originally Los Angeles Times..
According to experts, this is a sign that the coronavirus vaccine, which has shown high efficacy in late-stage clinical trials, is also working in the real world.
Behind that is the deployment of the vaccine in the United States. COVID-19 cases and reduced hospitalization Was it seen in almost every state last week?
Experts say it’s unlikely, given that alone so far 9.6 percent of Americans I have been vaccinated at least once.
“It is impossible to know the cause of the decrease in the number of cases and hospitalizations. [so few] One of the population is vaccinated. ” Dr. Sadhya S. Khan, Associate Professor of Medicine and Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University School of Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine.
Other Expert These recent declines in the number of cases include changes in people’s behavior, such as reduced travel and meetings after vacations, wearing masks to respond to the news of surges in cases and hospital bed shortages, and increased physical distance. It is likely that
But at some point, when a sufficient number of people are vaccinated, the country will begin to see the positive effects of the vaccine on pandemics.
“If we are willing to deploy the vaccine effectively, we can continue this downward trajectory,” Khan said. “This is especially important now, as new, more contagious variants, as seen in Europe, can become widespread and set us back.”
Israel, the world leader in coronavirus vaccination, is beginning to benefit from the rapid deployment of vaccines.
the current, 57.6% According to the non-profit Our World in Data, one of the population is vaccinated.Vaccination rates are even higher among Israelis 60 years and over, One of the first vaccinated people in the country.
Last month, Clarit, Israel’s largest medical services organization, was released. Preliminary data We will compare 200,000 vaccinated people over the age of 60 with 200,000 elderly people who are not similarly vaccinated.
The· Positive rate Fourteen days after receiving the vaccination, 33% of the vaccinated people decreased. No decline was seen without vaccination.
Another Israeli medical institution, Maccabi, saw an even bigger dip. The New York Times reports.. Between 13 and 21 days after vaccination, 430,000 people had a 60% reduction in infection.
The data is tentative and has not yet been published in peer-reviewed journals and should be viewed with caution.
However, Israel’s success provides early clues to what other countries may experience as they step up their vaccination efforts.
“The Israeli vaccine seems to be really successful,” he said. Dr. Christina Ramirez, Professor of Biostatistics, University of California, Los Angeles Fielding School of Public Health. “And I think it tells us what we should expect in other countries.”
In late clinical trials Pfizer-BioNTech The vaccine is 95% effective against symptomatological infections, Modern NIAID It is 94.1% effective.
Intermediate data is also Johnson & Johnson The vaccine is 66 percent effective against moderate to severe illness. This study does not investigate whether the vaccine prevented mild cases.
The actual efficacy of a vaccine is often less than that found in clinical trials due to many factors.
Israeli researchers are planning to do a more detailed statistical analysis of the data, the New York Times reports. They probably try to take into account some of these other factors.
Despite the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccine and the fast pace of administration to the arms of the Israeli people, the country has been hit hard by the third wave of coronavirus.
The emergence of more infectious variants is due to the powerlessness of vaccination campaigns and the blockade to slow the spread of the virus, According to the Israeli Minister of Health..
This is also variant First identified in the United Kingdom and South Africa, both became easier to spread.
Some studies have vaccine It may be less effective against variants in terms of preventing all symptoms. However, it may still prevent severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
This was seen in Intermediate data From Johnson & Johnson clinical trials. Vaccines were generally less effective in South Africa, but were nevertheless highly effective against serious illnesses in South Africa.
Research on these variants is underway to monitor the spread of these variants and the emergence of new ones.
Ramirez states that this data is essential to the fight against the coronavirus.
“We need to sequence and track these mutations,” she said, investigating whether the vaccine would prevent the transmission of the virus from one person to another.
“I’m saying that even if I’m vaccinated now, I need to wear a mask and stay socially distant,” she said.
However, if vaccines can prevent people from spreading the virus, some of those public health measures may be gradually mitigated.
“This is an important question to address, because it helps us get back to normal faster,” Ramirez said.
“If the virus can’t replicate, it can’t mutate,” Forch told the White House’s COVID-19 response team on Monday. Press conference.. “Wide vaccination to stop replication … not only protects individuals from disease, but also prevents the emergence of mutants.”
So when do Americans begin to understand the benefits of deploying vaccines?
With Vaccine deployment is slow As a result, less than 2% of Americans are fully vaccinated, and it can take months for reduced cases and hospitalization to be vaccinated. By then, millions more Americans will be vaccinated.
Separating the effectiveness of a vaccine from the effects of other means such as masking, physical distance, and blockade depends on having sufficient detailed data to perform a thorough analysis.
However, collecting consistent data across states is what the United States has.
“In the data I saw, [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] We are not tracking people infected after the first or second dose of the vaccine, “Ramirez said.
“That’s the type of data we need to be able to say: this reduction is due to vaccines, while this reduction is due to other policy measures.”
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