Health
The UCL team’s claim that herd immunity will be achieved in the UK has been disputed | Coronavirus
Scientists at University College London predict that the UK will achieve herd immunity from Covid-19 on Friday.
Scientists from other institutions argued that the modeling was wrong and that the approach had a history of “overconfident and overly optimistic predictions.”
By April 9, Professor Karl Friston and his UCL colleagues claimed that by April 9, 73.4% of the population would be immunized through vaccines or by being infected with Covid and recovering.The predictions come from the latest public version of what they call them Dynamic causal model..
Quick guide
Vaccines: How effective are each?
Pfizer / BioNTech
Country USA / Germany
Effectiveness 95% in one week from the second shot. Pfizer says it’s only 52% after the first dose, but the UK’s Joint Commission on Immunization and Immunization (JCVI) says it could rise to 90% after 21 days. I will.
dose In clinical trials, two doses were given at 21-day intervals. The UK has extended this to 12 weeks.
Oxford / AstraZeneca
Country England
Effectiveness 70.4% 14 days after the second dose. If you administer the full dose after the half dose, you may get up to 90% efficacy. Vaccinated people have no serious illness or hospitalization.It has been a concern Less effective against South African variants of coronavirus, And in some countries, it has been suggested to be less effective for both older and younger patients.
A UK government-funded study of UK caregiver residents revealed the risk of infection with Covid-19 (symptomatic or asymptomatic). 62% decrease in 5 weeks After receiving the first vaccination with Oxford / AstraZeneca or Pfizer / BioNTech.
dose 2, 4, 12 week intervals
modern
Country We
Effectiveness Phase 3 test results suggest 94.1%.
dose Every 2,28 days
Novavax
Country We
Effectiveness Phase 3 trials suggest 89.3%.
dose two
Janssen (Johnson & part of Johnson)
Country We
Effectiveness In the US study, 72% was found to prevent mild to moderate cases, while in an international study, 66% was observed to be effective. 85% effectiveness against severe illness, 100% protection against hospitalization and death.
dose: One is to make the Phase 3 results so far unique among the Covid vaccines.
However, we have added a disclaimer. “Similar to long-term weather forecasts, there are inherent (quantified) uncertainties about the underlying epidemiological and social action variables, so subsequent forecasts should not be taken very seriously. “They said.
The· Vaccination program in the UK It’s working very well. Almost 32 million people have at least one jab. Nevertheless, the concept of herd immunity achieved by vaccination of many other diseases is now frowned upon when it comes to Covid.When Overseas travel begins, Socialize throughout the summer with a card, Variants that appear In all parts of the world, few scientists immediately bet on herd immunity.