close

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, Americans wonder if the illness they had earlier this year was actually the result of the new coronavirus.

USA TODAY

Claim: The second wave of the Spanish flu reportedly killed 20 to 50 million people after the first wave killed 3 to 5 million people.

Facebook Position Claiming that the second wave of Spanish flu killed far more people than the first wave drew the attention of the masses concerned about the future potential of COVID-19.

In a post shared by more than 46,000 people: Only 3 to 5 million people were killed in the first wave. History certainly repeats itself. “

USA TODAY sent a comment request to the contributor but did not receive a reply.

The conversation about the flu pandemic a century ago is not unique to social media users. Drawn by an expert Similar comparison Between the two pandemics to better understand and understand the COVID-19 crisis.

But many of these comparisons Fail to emphasize The more severe reality of the 1918 pandemic. Advanced medical systems and advances in medical technology, lack of intergovernmental World Health Organization, and ongoing World War have become known as the worst pandemic in human history.

Fact check: Why is the 1918 influenza virus called the “Spanish flu”?

Uncertain death toll

Researchers continue to investigate the Spanish cold. The exact death toll and case fatality rate, the total number of deaths out of the total number of cases recorded, are unknown due to incomplete and inaccurate records in underdeveloped areas.

“In 1918, death certificate records and epidemiology were just beginning.” Amesh Adalha, Senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Health and Safety Center, Described in a recent NPR article. “We didn’t have all of that data, and there were many parts of the world that weren’t connected to other parts of the world. I couldn’t get data from some at that time. “

Alex Navarro Assistant Director of the Center for Medical History, University of Michigan. He has been investigating the effects of the 1918 and 2009 influenza pandemics for over a decade. Despite the death record in the United States, “it’s really just a guess,” he said.

Navarro said it was difficult to know if a person died of pneumonia or died of influenza-induced pneumonia, as influenza was not a disease to report at the beginning of the 1918 pandemic. Stated.

It is estimated that between 17.4 million and 100 million people die worldwide.

These numbers are 2018 American Journal of Epidemiology research, A The 2002 study was published in John Hopkins University Press When A 1991 study from the Bulletin of Medical History.

“Which data is inconsistent and tends to be questionable for validity, accuracy, and robustness,” said the 2002 study.

The claim about the Spanish flu occurring on multiple waves is correct, but the number of waves is still controversial. US Centers for Disease Control shows three waves “There are generally four waves to consider,” Navarro said on his website.

According to the CDC, these waves started in March 1918 and ended in the summer of 1919. Some believe that in 1920 a fourth wave occurred in a particular area.

While it is true that the majority of US deaths occurred during the second wave of the fall of 1918 pandemics, the exact death toll for each wave is unknown. The CDC calculated a total of approximately 675,000 deaths in the United States. Of them About 195,000 happened during the second wave of October 1918. This is about 28% of all deaths in the United States.

Experts say the second wave is more serious because of a 1991 study, which said it was more likely to be accompanied by genetic mutations, wartime movements, and “bacterial pneumonia.”

Experts are still discussing the fatality rate of the Spanish cold.

According to a 2006 CDC article, the case fatality rate for influenza in Spain was about 2.5%, with 2.5% of those infected died. But as a science writer Ferris jabPointed out recently on wired, The 2.5% number may not be accurate.

Many experts say 2.5% is too low. In addition, the numbers frequently referred to by many media and academics (2.5% mortality rate, 500 million infected people, 50 million to 100 million deaths) are inconsistent.

“If the Spanish flu infects 500 million people and kills 500 to 100 million people, the global CFR (lethal rate) was 10 to 20%. The mortality rate was actually 2.5% and 500 million people Infected with 12.5 million people were killed, ”Jabr said in a Wired article. “There were 1.8 billion people in 1918. At least 2 billion infections were needed to match 2.5 percent CFR with 50 million deaths, more than there were at the time.”

Facebook’s claim takes into account total mortality, not mortality, but the mortality is unknown because experts don’t understand exactly the Spanish flu mortality.

It is impossible to know how many people died during each period, as there is no complete and accurate record of deaths during the Spanish influenza pandemic and no consensus on wave length and number.

Our verdict: partly wrong

We rate this claim as partially false. Experts agreed that the Spanish flu occurred in multiple waves, with the second being far more deadly than the others. But it is a mistake to attribute a certain number of deaths to each wave. Due to the lack of a comprehensive medical record of 1918-20, there is insufficient evidence to conclude an accurate number of deaths in any of the waves of pandemics. In addition, the CDC estimates that not only the second wave, but 50 million deaths throughout the pandemic.

Fact check source

Read or share this story: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/25/fact-check-total-deaths-each-spanish-flu-wave-unknown/3024648001 /