Prolonged threat of fall Covid-19 outbreak

I’ve heard it, but it’s true. This year’s American summer will be very good. After years of horror caused by Covid-19, US vaccination campaigns and warm weather will give the country the coveted amnesty from the coronavirus and all the horrors it has caused.

But what will come after summer?

Last year, we found that the coronavirus was more likely to spread in autumn and winter than in warm months. Over 330,000 Americans Died in Covid-19 during the six months of fall and winter — nearly nine times the unimaginable death toll Deaths from all car accidents in 2019 And more than 17 times All murders..

One reason was that much of the United States withdrew its vigilance and precautions, slowing the country’s reaction to the coronavirus. However, experts also blame the seasonality of Covid-19. When the temperature dropped, people were pushed indoors, the virus was more likely to spread, and families gathered during the holiday season.

America is in a much better place than last fall and winter. The combination of the vaccine and innate immunity from past Covid-19 infections suppresses the virus.But the country is not yet completely clear: the majority of the US population Not yet vaccinated, And the rate of daily vaccinations has dropped dramatically, I’m standing about half now Although it peaked in mid-April.

Next, there are variants of the coronavirus. Vaccines do a good job of overwhelming known mutants, Based on researchHowever, at least some variants appear to overcome some innate immunity. Therefore, people in the United States who have not been vaccinated but have previously been infected with Covid-19 may still be vulnerable. Some experts are also concerned that innate immunity from previous infections may not persist. Perhaps over time, it will potentially decline in time for the falling waves. (There are similar concerns about vaccines, but so far, vaccine-induced immunity has proven to be superior to innate immunity in research studies.)

There is also the risk that the warm climate and the potential seasonality of the virus will, in a sense, give the country a false sense of security. By allowing much of the United States (Not all) Safely interacting outside, Covid-19 cases and mortality continue to decline, but there is a risk that people will migrate from the virus too soon. The rest of the unvaccinated people will come to believe that if they haven’t done so already. You really need to get a shot.

All of these factors (holidays, cold weather, varieties, and at least some of the immune system can be weakened) can combine to create a Covid-19 resurgence this fall and winter. The experts I spoke to do not believe this will be a major nationwide surge. Too many people will be vaccinated by the fall for that to happen. However, regional or state-level spikes of coronavirus can occur, especially in some countries with low vaccination rates.

“If the scope of vaccination really gets bogged down, that can happen,” said Jenkatez, head of global health and HIV policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation. “If we expand the scope of vaccination, I’m less worried about it.”

This is not a reason for despair. Especially if you are vaccinated You are very safe from Covid-19.. Rather, it calls for more people to be vaccinated. This is one way the country can guarantee that the next fall or winter surge will never happen.

The pandemic isn’t over yet

The news about Covid-19 in the US is really incredible right now.Almost half of the country Received at least one vaccination..Daily new cases of coronavirus Less than 10 days What they were during the peak of January, and death Reduced by 85% or more From January as well. Increased vaccination rates, reduced cases and deaths, and warm weather will soon allow us to safely engage in the kind of social interaction that was dangerous just a year ago, if not yet. Become.

This is all really great and thrilling news. Personally, I’m planning a trip or vacation that I was scared of a year ago. I no longer wear masks unless required by law or by the company I love. You will soon be able to meet your friends and family after a long absence.As a vaccinated person, I no longer have to worry about Covid-19’s own risks — and many experts Share that view..

But this optimism can be a bit overkill. The situation has improved, but it has not yet returned to normal. Covid-19 cases and deaths Still close to or above the level Last summer was thought to be quite expensive.Over 60 percent of the country Not completely vaccinated yet, And more than half I haven’t taken at least one shot..To Some states, The rate of vaccination is even lower, and two-thirds of the population has not yet received a single shot.

“It’s good to celebrate at this stage,” Mauricio Santijana, a researcher at Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital, told me. “But I can’t be completely sure this is the end.”

The large unvaccinated population means that many remain vulnerable to the virus.The level of vaccination required for herd immunity (the level of immunity that guarantees that the infection does not spread within the community) is unknown, but experts believe It requires at least 60% of the vaccinated population and will probably be 85% or 90%, depending on the variants we are dealing with.

The remaining vulnerabilities may also increase. Innate immunity can weaken over time, or more infectious variants can emerge. When autumn comes and the weather cools, people return their activities to a poorly ventilated indoor environment, and viruses in the air can spread more easily. People can be too vigilant, especially if the number of cases of Covid-19 continues to decline during the summer.

“I think things will be much better in the fall and winter,” Ashish Jha, Dean of the Faculty of Public Health at Brown University, told me. “But we may see bumps very well, and if we see a surge in cases, we may need to impose some mild public health restrictions in a short period of time. “No,” he added, “we must be ready.”

Imagine a potential scenario. The number of cases and deaths continues to decline. Summer brings a renewal of social activity. Covid-19 begins to look like the past. Legal and voluntary Covid-related precautions have been widely abandoned. In this environment, those who have not yet been vaccinated will probably not need to be vaccinated. After all, viruses are no longer really a threat. Therefore, the number of cases and deaths will decrease, but the vaccination rate will also decrease.

Then autumn will come. More people move indoors, travel and get together on holidays. Perhaps new variants will become the predominant form of the virus in the United States. At the same time, the innate immunity is probably weakened. In some parts of the country, South and Midwest, Many of the population remain unvaccinated. Suddenly, the virus begins to pick up locally or beyond, especially when vaccination rates are low throughout the state. Local and state governments are slow to respond and may resist reinstatement of restrictions that have just celebrated their end.

This scenario is not guaranteed. Maybe the vaccine is so good that we can see that the current immunization rates in the United States and perhaps more durable innate immunity than previously thought are sufficient to repel the coronavirus. ..

But that’s a risk. And given that there is a good way to get around it, it’s unnecessary.

There is a solution: vaccination more people

The vaccine is great. evidence From clinical trials, and in the real world, they have found that they nearly eliminate the risk of serious illness, hospitalization, and death from Covid-19. In Israel, which has the most advanced vaccination campaign in the world, the vaccination rate is 60%. Let me The country remains almost completely open And Daily Covid-19 deaths are reduced to single digits or zero. This is a major improvement for countries that have experienced the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world.

However, vaccines can only do their own thing if more people are vaccinated. The United States is not 60 percent of Israel. And there is a good chance that the United States will have to go higher than that — Israel’s resumption still includes mask obligations, Vaccine passport, Both Americans are increasingly rejecting.

“As long as there are pockets for people who choose not to vaccinate, you keep the door open for Covid to come back,” Santijana said. “We need to be vigilant.”

For lawmakers and other leaders, that means doing more work to get people vaccinated.Expert Seeking Three-tier approach: improve access, provide incentives, and impose some obligations as needed. That is, at the state level, we partner with recreational facilities and transportation to provide on-site shots, provide vaccinated people with financial or other physical rewards, and require schools, including universities, to be vaccinated. You can be encouraged to do so. On the private side, it could also mean that the employer provides vaccines in the field, distributes wage bonuses to vaccinated people, and demands vaccination to return to the office.

For the general public, that means more people choose to be vaccinated. One of the things that can help here is for vaccinated people to share their stories. Almost 1 in 5 It is in vaccine waiting mode, mainly waiting for people around it to get an injection.

The United States has entered a pandemic year in a very uncertain situation. If as many people as possible are vaccinated, they have the opportunity to counteract one of the last bits of uncertainty, and the risk of the next fall and winter surge. But it is everyone’s responsibility to make that happen.